Last week, it became clear that the reciprocal tariffs would be delayed to August 1. Trump sent letters to key trade partners—EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea—announcing the plan. While these countries show willingness to negotiate, they’re also preparing retaliation.

So what does Trump really want?

1️⃣ He Wants Revenue

In May, the U.S. collected over $22B in tariffs—three times the 2024 monthly average. Annual revenue could reach nearly $400B if tariffs expand further. This helped the U.S. achieve a budget surplus in June for the first time in 8 years (+$27B).

For Trump, tariffs are a key tool to fund fiscal expansion 2.0 after the “Big Beautiful Act,” especially under high debt and interest costs.

2️⃣ He Wants Trade Concessions

Trump is using tariffs as leverage, not an end goal. He wants:

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Major reduction or elimination of tariffs on U.S. goods

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Increased purchase of American products (agriculture, energy, planes)

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Acceptance of sector-specific U.S. tariffs (cars, steel, etc.)

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Removal of non-tariff barriers like Digital Services Taxes (DST)

Some partners like UK and Canada have already removed DST. The EU resists.

3️⃣ Small Nations Yield, Major Players Push Back

Vietnam and Indonesia mostly agreed. But EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico are tougher. They’re open to negotiation but firm on red lines.

E.g., Japanese carmakers absorbed 17.7% of Trump’s car tariffs, while U.S. consumers bore only 7.3%. If exporters eat most of the cost, Trump may continue or raise tariffs.

4️⃣ What’s Next in Talks?

80% of U.S. imports come from EU, Mexico, China, Canada, Japan, Vietnam, and Korea. These talks are crucial.

If they agree to lower tariffs, buy more U.S. goods, or reduce DST, Trump may ease up—possibly with quotas or partial exemptions.

If not, full tariffs roll out August 1.

5️⃣ Market Impact

Markets have become more resilient to tariff headlines. If deals happen before August, markets could react positively.

If not, new tariffs could hit—but likely with less shock than April’s.

Did Ancient Whale BTC Transfers Really Crash the Market?

BTC price dropped earlier this week, with many pointing to an “ancient whale” moving coins as the trigger. But what do the numbers really say?

📈 Selling pressure was already rising

After BTC broke above $115K, daily exchange inflows jumped from 30,000 BTC to 50,000 BTC. Investors began taking profit even before the whale news.

🐋 The whale only moved ~3,000 BTC

The so-called ancient whale only added ~3,000 BTC to the inflows — a small portion of the total. And exchange withdrawals didn’t rise, meaning most of the BTC hasn’t been sold yet.

⚖️ Stability relies on low selling, not strong buying

Net inflow data shows 13,000+ BTC are now sitting idle on exchanges. That means excess supply hasn’t been absorbed. If negative news hits, it could trigger panic selling.

⬆️ Rebound driven by low liquidity + policy hope

Today’s rebound seems to reflect low Asian-session liquidity + hope that Trump flipped some lawmakers before the upcoming stablecoin vote. A small amount of buying lifted price, not strong demand.

🧠 Whale panic = psychological, not structural

Exchange BTC reserves are now up 18,000 BTC from last week’s low. That supply hasn’t exited yet. The real threat isn’t the whale — it’s investor fear and lack of buying power.

Did Ancient Whale BTC Transfers Really Crash the Market?

BTC price dropped earlier this week, with many pointing to an “ancient whale” moving coins as the trigger. But what do the numbers really say?

📈 Selling pressure was already rising

After BTC broke above $115K, daily exchange inflows jumped from 30,000 BTC to 50,000 BTC. Investors began taking profit even before the whale news.

🐋 The whale only moved ~3,000 BTC

The so-called ancient whale only added ~3,000 BTC to the inflows — a small portion of the total. And exchange withdrawals didn’t rise, meaning most of the BTC hasn’t been sold yet.

⚖️ Stability relies on low selling, not strong buying

Net inflow data shows 13,000+ BTC are now sitting idle on exchanges. That means excess supply hasn’t been absorbed. If negative news hits, it could trigger panic selling.

⬆️ Rebound driven by low liquidity + policy hope

Today’s rebound seems to reflect low Asian-session liquidity + hope that Trump flipped some lawmakers before the upcoming stablecoin vote. A small amount of buying lifted price, not strong demand.

🧠 Whale panic = psychological, not structural

Exchange BTC reserves are now up 18,000 BTC from last week’s low. That supply hasn’t exited yet. The real threat isn’t the whale — it’s investor fear and lack of buying power.

✅ Bottom line:

The “ancient whale” headlines caused fear, but the actual data shows limited impact. What really matters is whether the market can absorb increasing BTC inflows without stronger demand.

三、Market Highlights

⚠️ Reminder: Meme tokens are very volatile and not backed by fundamentals. Prices are driven by sentiment and may drop to zero. Please stay rational and assess your own risk before investing.

•

New Narratives vs. Liquidity Injection: A Debate

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@0xcryptowizard

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There’s no need to be disappointed in crypto—try looking at things from a more complete perspective. Over the past three years, despite tight macro conditions and a lack of innovation, on-chain inscriptions and memes have still brought plenty of opportunities.We can’t even predict tomorrow, so stop worrying about the future of crypto. Liquidity and innovation usually come together when that moment comes, shut up and ape in.

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🔗https://x.com/0xcryptowizard/status/1942721154093076900

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@qinbafrank

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Without innovation, there are no expectations; without expectations, it’s hard to form consensus and naturally, the market lacks imagination. Liquidity is a catalyst, but it cannot replace innovation. If so-called “innovation” only comes with liquidity, it’s likely just storytelling and won’t last. What truly drives long-term market growth is ongoing innovation and real-world value. In past cycles—like the internet and AI booms—it wasn’t liquidity that led the way, but constant technical breakthroughs and real adoption. Only then will capital keep flowing in and create a positive feedback loop.

•

🔗https://x.com/qinbafrank/status/1942760175795888479

•

Why Have Many Major Players “Retired” Their Main Wallets? There are likely two main reasons behind this trend:

•

Excessive copy-trading pressure – Once a main wallet makes a purchase, various copy-trading bots immediately push the price up. As a result, the price often hits the expected target almost instantly, leaving no room for further operations. If they sell, they’re criticized by the public; if they hold, they face heavy sell pressure.

•

Avoiding conspiracy theories – Public wallets often attract baseless accusations such as “insider trading,” “coordinated dumping,” or “using alt wallets to exit positions.” These rumors create emotional stress and reputational risks for the wallet owner.

•

https://x.com/0xSunNFT/status/1942821038401937806

•

Bonk.Fun gaining momentum — These 3 meme tokens are leading the market this week

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USELESS

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HOSICO

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LetsBONK

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🔗https://www.theblockbeats.info/news/58857

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The Pump Fades, Bonk Takes the Throne | A Wild 48 Hours of Letsbonk

•

🔗https://x.com/kaikaibtc/status/1942157561081495565

📰Daily Market Insights

1.Trump Says GENIUS Bill Will Be Passed Tomorrow

2.TAC Announces Airdrop Claim Guide: Only Supports TON Wallet, Staking and Locking for 60 Days to Receive 100% Allocation

3.PUMP Surges Over 15% in 24 Hours, Market Cap Reaches $23.9 Billion

4.Meme Coin Ani, Based on the Grok Humanoid Companion, Sees Market Cap Briefly Exceed $25 Million

5.Plasma Announces Testnet is Now Live

🐶MemeCoins

The war between BONK and BSC is about to erupt. Tom has been actively engaging in Chinese, winning the hearts of the CN community. If BSC doesn’t step up, it’ll be left with nothing but scraps.

So FOUR couldn’t stay silent—launched Chinese-character tokens overnight to join the battle.

🚀 BONK’s Chinese leader: 旺柴 CA: 83kGGSggYGP2ZEEyvX54SkZR1kFn84RgGCDyptbDbonk

🔥 BSC’s response: 哈喽 CA: 0x29776fcd48e9506f9421cec21cd48304ff564444

Daily report

2025-07-30 Report

📅 July 30, 2025｜Crypto Research Brief

⛱️ Before We Begin

Cryptocurrencies involve uncertainty and risk. You may lose your entire principal.

This report is for sharing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make investment decisions rationally.

一、Indicators

📊The Market

Currencies: 17,822

Exchanges: 1,331

Total Market Cap: US$390 B 4.6%📉

24-Hour Trading Volume: US$146 B

BTC 59.6% ETH 11.7%

Gas: 1.4 GWEI

Altcoin Season Index: 41

Fear & Greed Index:73

（Data sourced from CoinGecko）

🧭Stablecoin Metrics

Market Cap of USD-Pegged Stablecoins: $262 B

🔥Liquidation Map

二、SEC&ETF&Policy & Macro Analysis

BTC ETF

ETH ETF

🏙️Macroeconomic Overview

Bitcoin Recent Market Analysis Summary:

Reasons for Price Volatility:

Mainly influenced by investors’ risk-off sentiment.

Recently also affected by fluctuations in China-US trade relations, particularly strong statements from US officials Bassett and Trump regarding China’s tariff policies. Bassett emphasized that increasing pressure on China is crucial, while Trump expressed dissatisfaction with China’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

Macroeconomic Factors:

The ADP employment data will be released on Wednesday. If the data is strong, it indicates a healthy US labor market and strong economic resilience, which reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

A rate cut in July is now almost off the table. The market’s focus has shifted to whether Powell will turn dovish in September, with the ADP data potentially influencing his stance.

On-Chain and Market Sentiment Observations:

Turnover rate has slightly increased during the workweek, but mainly among investors with positions costing over $100,000, reflecting concerns over renewed China-US trade tensions and the Fed’s hawkish stance.

The FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment has clearly diminished, buying momentum has decreased, but selling pressure is also easing, putting the market in a balanced state of reduced buying and selling.

Technical and Risk Points:

Overall support levels remain stable.

However, the unfilled $112,000 URPD gap still poses a potential risk.

Overall Viewpoint: The market currently faces many uncertainties with frequent data releases and policy announcements, so cautious trading is advised. I personally lean toward expecting Powell to deliver a dovish signal in September to ease pressure, but ongoing attention to upcoming data and speeches is essential.

Learn More

三、Market Highlights

⚠️ Reminder: Meme tokens are very volatile and not backed by fundamentals. Prices are driven by sentiment and may drop to zero. Please stay rational and assess your own risk before investing.

📰Daily Market Insights

Linea Announces Tokenomics: Total Supply of approximately 72 billion tokens, with 9% Allocated for Early User Airdrop

2.Ethereum celebrates its tenth anniversary today, having grown from $0.3 to become the world’s 28th largest asset.

3.Ethereum 10th Anniversary Torch Commemorative NFT Free Minting is Now Open

4.The SEC Approves Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Physical Redemption Mechanism