At the moment, the market is still in a wide-ranging sideways chop. Since I’m not good at short-term trading, I’m staying on the sidelines and waiting it out. If the price dips significantly, I’ll consider buying; if it rises, I’ll just sit back and stay calm — simple and stress-free.

There’s nothing particularly unusual in the data. The main thing worth noting is that the Bitcoin ETFs have been repeatedly hitting new highs.

Looking at the long/short ratio and funding rates, overall market sentiment has picked up slightly, but not by much. Bears seem to be showing signs of surrender on the surface, but behind the scenes, they’re still eager to fight. Once the market fully shakes them out and they start flipping long, that’s usually a sign the top is near.

Market Indicators – May 20, 2025

BTC Holding Period >1 Year: 62.8% (Below 55% indicates a high-risk zone)

Ahr999X Index: 2.77 (>9 = DCA zone; <0.4 = market top)

Bitcoin Dominance: 63.9% (Near 40% often signals a cycle top)

Fear & Greed Index: 71 (Closer to 100 = high-risk; <10 = buy zone)

Bitcoin Rainbow Chart: HODL! (Orange-red = high risk; dark blue = bottom)

PI Cycle Distance: Far (Crossing = bull market top)

RHODL Ratio: 3,024 (>10,000 = top zone; <300 = bottom zone)

**60-Day Price Change (Jiang Zhuo’er Index)**: +24% (>80% indicates short-term bubble risk)

**RSI (Relative Strength Index)**: 69.07 (<45 = buy zone; >85 = top signal)

Altcoin Season Index: 16 (<25 = undervaluation zone; >75 = bubble zone)

BTC Spot ETF Net Flow: $667.4 million

ETH Spot ETF Net Flow: $13.7 million

DCA Strategy Index: Holding Zone (Buy Zone / DCA Zone / Holding Zone / Sell Zone / Top Zone)

BTC Daily Candlestick Trend: Uptrend (Uptrend / Downtrend)

Bull Market Top Countdown: 120 days remaining

三、Market Highlights

⚠️ Reminder: Meme tokens are very volatile and not backed by fundamentals. Prices are driven by sentiment and may drop to zero. Please stay rational and assess your own risk before investing.

Daily Market Insights

1.Hyperliquid High Win Rate Whale Goes Short on Bitcoin with 40x Leverage, Short Position Valued at $88.41 Million

2.BNB Chain Ecosystem Project BUILDon(B) On-Chain Transaction Volume Surpasses $100 Million

3.Ethereum Co-Founder Jeffrey Wilcke has transferred 394,000 ETH to Kraken since 2016, with a total cash-out amount of approximately $510 million.

4.Bloomberg Analyst: BlackRock’s Bitcoin Holdings Reach 57% of Satoshi Nakamoto’s, Projected to Become the World’s Largest Bitcoin Holder by Next Summer

5.Robinhood has submitted a proposal to the U.S. SEC to advance the establishment of an RWA tokenization federal framework.

Meme Coins – Trending in the Last 24 Hours

•

$GENE

•

Narrative: A meme launched by Chinese creators, quickly reached a $10M market cap.

•

$EVIE

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Narrative: The “third daughter” of Peppa Pig — meme storytelling driving hype.

Daily report

2025-07-30 Report

📅 July 30, 2025｜Crypto Research Brief

⛱️ Before We Begin

Cryptocurrencies involve uncertainty and risk. You may lose your entire principal.

This report is for sharing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make investment decisions rationally.

一、Indicators

📊The Market

Currencies: 17,822

Exchanges: 1,331

Total Market Cap: US$390 B 4.6%📉

24-Hour Trading Volume: US$146 B

BTC 59.6% ETH 11.7%

Gas: 1.4 GWEI

Altcoin Season Index: 41

Fear & Greed Index:73

（Data sourced from CoinGecko）

🧭Stablecoin Metrics

Market Cap of USD-Pegged Stablecoins: $262 B

🔥Liquidation Map

二、SEC&ETF&Policy & Macro Analysis

BTC ETF

ETH ETF

🏙️Macroeconomic Overview

Bitcoin Recent Market Analysis Summary:

Reasons for Price Volatility:

Mainly influenced by investors’ risk-off sentiment.

Recently also affected by fluctuations in China-US trade relations, particularly strong statements from US officials Bassett and Trump regarding China’s tariff policies. Bassett emphasized that increasing pressure on China is crucial, while Trump expressed dissatisfaction with China’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

Macroeconomic Factors:

The ADP employment data will be released on Wednesday. If the data is strong, it indicates a healthy US labor market and strong economic resilience, which reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

A rate cut in July is now almost off the table. The market’s focus has shifted to whether Powell will turn dovish in September, with the ADP data potentially influencing his stance.

On-Chain and Market Sentiment Observations:

Turnover rate has slightly increased during the workweek, but mainly among investors with positions costing over $100,000, reflecting concerns over renewed China-US trade tensions and the Fed’s hawkish stance.

The FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment has clearly diminished, buying momentum has decreased, but selling pressure is also easing, putting the market in a balanced state of reduced buying and selling.

Technical and Risk Points:

Overall support levels remain stable.

However, the unfilled $112,000 URPD gap still poses a potential risk.

Overall Viewpoint: The market currently faces many uncertainties with frequent data releases and policy announcements, so cautious trading is advised. I personally lean toward expecting Powell to deliver a dovish signal in September to ease pressure, but ongoing attention to upcoming data and speeches is essential.

Learn More

三、Market Highlights

⚠️ Reminder: Meme tokens are very volatile and not backed by fundamentals. Prices are driven by sentiment and may drop to zero. Please stay rational and assess your own risk before investing.

📰Daily Market Insights

Linea Announces Tokenomics: Total Supply of approximately 72 billion tokens, with 9% Allocated for Early User Airdrop

2.Ethereum celebrates its tenth anniversary today, having grown from $0.3 to become the world’s 28th largest asset.

3.Ethereum 10th Anniversary Torch Commemorative NFT Free Minting is Now Open

4.The SEC Approves Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Physical Redemption Mechanism