Crypto Fear & Greed Index
Liquidations History
Bitcoin Ahr999 Index
Bull Market Escape Index
Grayscale Holdings
Grayscale Premium
ETFs Premium/Discount
MicroStrategy's Avg Bitcoin Cost
Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply
Liquidation Map
Bull Market Escape Index
指标命中率:1/30
| # | Indicator | Current Value | Reference Value | Hit Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bitcoin Ahr999 Index | 0.97 | >=4 | |
| 2 | Pi Cycle Top Indicator | 112022.0 | >=195764 | |
| 3 | Puell Multiple | 1.14 | >=2.2 | |
| 4 | Bitcoin Rainbow Chart | 3 | >=5 | |
| 5 | Days of ETF Net Outflows | 2 | >=10 | |
| 6 | ETF-to-BTC Ratio | 1.5% | <=3.5% | |
| 7 | 2-Year MA Multiplier | 112022 | >=374558 | |
| 8 | MVRV Z-Score | 2.16 | >=5 | |
| 9 | Bitcoin Bubble Index | 13.48 | >=80 | |
| 10 | USDT Flexible Savings | 5.89% | >=29% | |
| 11 | RSI - 22 Day | 47.005 | >=80 | |
| 12 | Altcoin Season Index | 67.00 | >=75 | |
| 13 | Bitcoin Dominance | 57.72% | >=65% | |
| 14 | Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply | 15.39M | <=13.5M | |
| 15 | Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply (%) | 22.74% | >=30% | |
| 16 | Bitcoin Reserve Risk | 0.0024 | >=0.005 | |
| 17 | Bitcoin Net Unrealized P&L (NUPL) | 54.91% | >=70% | |
| 18 | Bitcoin RHODL Ratio | 2944 | >=10000 | |
| 19 | Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO) | 0.84 | >=1.4 | |
| 20 | Bitcoin MVRV Ratio | 2.11 | >=3 | |
| 21 | Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average | 2.13 | >=3.5 | |
| 22 | Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI) | 74 | >=90 | |
| 23 | Mayer Multiple | 1.13 | >=2.2 | |
| 24 | Bitcoin AHR999x Top Escape Indicator | 3.10 | <=0.45 | |
| 25 | MicroStrategy's Avg Bitcoin Cost | 72314 | >=155655 | |
| 26 | Bitcoin Trend Indicator | 6.14 | >=7 | |
| 27 | 3-Month Annualized Ratio | 9.95% | >=30% | |
| 28 | Bitcoin Terminal Price | 112462.3 | 187702 | |
| 29 | The Golden Ratio Multiplier | 112462.3 | 135522 | |
| 30 | Smithson's Bitcoin Price Forecast | 112462.3 | 175k-230k |
FAQ - Bull Market Escape Index
FAQ - What is the Bull Market Top Signal, and how should it be used?
Indicator Description:
The Bull Market Top Signal is a composite index combining 30 independent indicators—covering valuation, sentiment, liquidity, technical momentum, and on-chain behavior.
Each sub-indicator has a unique threshold. When it is crossed, the signal is marked as “hit.”
Interpretation Method:
✅ Hit Count / 30 = Signal Intensity
📈 More hits = higher likelihood of market topping
🔥 Strong cluster of on-chain and sentiment triggers = probable bull market peak
Examples of hit logic:
Ahr999 ≥ 4 → Extreme overvaluation
MVRV Z-Score ≥ 5 → Historical top territory
Mayer Multiple ≥ 2.2 → Significantly above long-term average
10 consecutive days of ETF net outflows → Institutional capital exit
USDT savings rate ≥ 29% → Overheated demand, FOMO likely
Use Cases:
🚨 Spot potential market tops before major reversals
💼 Helps with timing profit-taking or scaling out
📊 Useful for macro trend shifts and capital protection
🔍 Best used in combination with sentiment, technical, and cycle indicators
Daily report
2025-07-30 Report
📅 July 30, 2025｜Crypto Research Brief
⛱️ Before We Begin
Cryptocurrencies involve uncertainty and risk. You may lose your entire principal.
This report is for sharing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make investment decisions rationally.
一、Indicators
📊The Market
Currencies: 17,822
Exchanges: 1,331
Total Market Cap: US$390 B 4.6%📉
24-Hour Trading Volume: US$146 B
BTC 59.6% ETH 11.7%
Gas: 1.4 GWEI
Altcoin Season Index: 41
Fear & Greed Index:73
（Data sourced from CoinGecko）
🧭Stablecoin Metrics
Market Cap of USD-Pegged Stablecoins: $262 B
🔥Liquidation Map
二、SEC&ETF&Policy & Macro Analysis
BTC ETF
ETH ETF
🏙️Macroeconomic Overview
Bitcoin Recent Market Analysis Summary:
1.
Reasons for Price Volatility:
1.
Mainly influenced by investors’ risk-off sentiment.
2.
Recently also affected by fluctuations in China-US trade relations, particularly strong statements from US officials Bassett and Trump regarding China’s tariff policies. Bassett emphasized that increasing pressure on China is crucial, while Trump expressed dissatisfaction with China’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
2.
Macroeconomic Factors:
1.
The ADP employment data will be released on Wednesday. If the data is strong, it indicates a healthy US labor market and strong economic resilience, which reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.
2.
A rate cut in July is now almost off the table. The market’s focus has shifted to whether Powell will turn dovish in September, with the ADP data potentially influencing his stance.
3.
On-Chain and Market Sentiment Observations:
1.
Turnover rate has slightly increased during the workweek, but mainly among investors with positions costing over $100,000, reflecting concerns over renewed China-US trade tensions and the Fed’s hawkish stance.
2.
The FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment has clearly diminished, buying momentum has decreased, but selling pressure is also easing, putting the market in a balanced state of reduced buying and selling.
4.
Technical and Risk Points:
1.
Overall support levels remain stable.
2.
However, the unfilled $112,000 URPD gap still poses a potential risk.
Overall Viewpoint: The market currently faces many uncertainties with frequent data releases and policy announcements, so cautious trading is advised. I personally lean toward expecting Powell to deliver a dovish signal in September to ease pressure, but ongoing attention to upcoming data and speeches is essential.
Learn More
三、Market Highlights
⚠️ Reminder: Meme tokens are very volatile and not backed by fundamentals. Prices are driven by sentiment and may drop to zero. Please stay rational and assess your own risk before investing.
📰Daily Market Insights
1.
Linea Announces Tokenomics: Total Supply of approximately 72 billion tokens, with 9% Allocated for Early User Airdrop
2.Ethereum celebrates its tenth anniversary today, having grown from $0.3 to become the world’s 28th largest asset.
3.Ethereum 10th Anniversary Torch Commemorative NFT Free Minting is Now Open
4.The SEC Approves Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Physical Redemption Mechanism
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