In the end, most countries may only accept a 10% basic reciprocal tariff and a few mild industry-specific tariffs. In return, they’ll cut tariffs on U.S. goods, buy more from the U.S., and offer other benefits. But this won’t happen right away.

Each country wants to negotiate but has its own red lines.

•

Japan wants the U.S. to remove tariffs on cars and steel, but the U.S. hasn’t agreed yet.

•

The EU offered to buy $50B more U.S. goods but also warned it might impose tariffs on $100B U.S. products if talks fail. It also eased limits on China relations.

•

The UK and India signed a trade deal.

•

Trump recently spoke with Australia’s new PM and met Canada’s PM—both still sound tough.

Why? Because 10% is acceptable, but extra or industry-specific tariffs would hit domestic industries hard. So countries delay, waiting for U.S. pressure to rise—especially pressure from Trump’s voter base. Once that happens, he may soften.

Trump’s recent comments already show signs of backing down. He said countries may get lower tariffs to help control prices. The Financial Times reported the U.S. and the UK may soon agree: the U.S. will lower tariffs on British cars and steel, and the UK will reduce tariffs and digital taxes. This deal could become a template for others.

2. Why China’s Central Bank Moved Now

Although China had planned to cut rates later, it acted sooner than expected. There may be several reasons:

China sees the U.S. won’t cut rates soon, and can’t wait any longer due to internal pressure.

China expects the U.S. to cut rates soon and wants to act slightly earlier.

China is confident in trade talks with the U.S. That could mean two things:

•

a) The U.S. is under pressure at home and abroad, and talks must happen. The tariff issue might quietly end.

•

b) U.S.–China trust is low. Even if they reach a deal, it will only be temporary. So no need to wait—just act now.

三、Market Highlights

⚠️ Reminder: Meme tokens are very volatile and not backed by fundamentals. Prices are driven by sentiment and may drop to zero. Please stay rational and assess your own risk before investing.

Daily Market Insights

1.The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tonight, with only a 4.4% probability of a rate cut in May.

2.Binance Alpha’s trading volume reached $290.1 million yesterday, hitting another all-time high.

3.May Day Holiday Meme Frenzy: How Did GORK Get Musk to Change His Avatar? | 100x Review

4.Timeline | 22-year-old Zerebro Co-founder’s「Death」 Mystery: Posthumously Launched Coin to Memorialize Himself, Associated Address Continuously Dumping Tokens

5.The Eight Top Perp DEXs Battle in the “Second Half of the Contract” - Who Will Harvest the Billions in Liquidity?

Daily report

2025-07-30 Report

📅 July 30, 2025｜Crypto Research Brief

⛱️ Before We Begin

Cryptocurrencies involve uncertainty and risk. You may lose your entire principal.

This report is for sharing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make investment decisions rationally.

一、Indicators

📊The Market

Currencies: 17,822

Exchanges: 1,331

Total Market Cap: US$390 B 4.6%📉

24-Hour Trading Volume: US$146 B

BTC 59.6% ETH 11.7%

Gas: 1.4 GWEI

Altcoin Season Index: 41

Fear & Greed Index:73

（Data sourced from CoinGecko）

🧭Stablecoin Metrics

Market Cap of USD-Pegged Stablecoins: $262 B

🔥Liquidation Map

二、SEC&ETF&Policy & Macro Analysis

BTC ETF

ETH ETF

🏙️Macroeconomic Overview

Bitcoin Recent Market Analysis Summary:

Reasons for Price Volatility:

Mainly influenced by investors’ risk-off sentiment.

Recently also affected by fluctuations in China-US trade relations, particularly strong statements from US officials Bassett and Trump regarding China’s tariff policies. Bassett emphasized that increasing pressure on China is crucial, while Trump expressed dissatisfaction with China’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

Macroeconomic Factors:

The ADP employment data will be released on Wednesday. If the data is strong, it indicates a healthy US labor market and strong economic resilience, which reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

A rate cut in July is now almost off the table. The market’s focus has shifted to whether Powell will turn dovish in September, with the ADP data potentially influencing his stance.

On-Chain and Market Sentiment Observations:

Turnover rate has slightly increased during the workweek, but mainly among investors with positions costing over $100,000, reflecting concerns over renewed China-US trade tensions and the Fed’s hawkish stance.

The FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment has clearly diminished, buying momentum has decreased, but selling pressure is also easing, putting the market in a balanced state of reduced buying and selling.

Technical and Risk Points:

Overall support levels remain stable.

However, the unfilled $112,000 URPD gap still poses a potential risk.

Overall Viewpoint: The market currently faces many uncertainties with frequent data releases and policy announcements, so cautious trading is advised. I personally lean toward expecting Powell to deliver a dovish signal in September to ease pressure, but ongoing attention to upcoming data and speeches is essential.

Learn More

三、Market Highlights

⚠️ Reminder: Meme tokens are very volatile and not backed by fundamentals. Prices are driven by sentiment and may drop to zero. Please stay rational and assess your own risk before investing.

📰Daily Market Insights

Linea Announces Tokenomics: Total Supply of approximately 72 billion tokens, with 9% Allocated for Early User Airdrop

2.Ethereum celebrates its tenth anniversary today, having grown from $0.3 to become the world’s 28th largest asset.

3.Ethereum 10th Anniversary Torch Commemorative NFT Free Minting is Now Open

4.The SEC Approves Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Physical Redemption Mechanism