Keep it simple stupid My favourite market acronym. There's not a lot of price history to go on, just 1 trend line and some hidden bullish divergence. Tight stop loss below the trend

6/23/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:CRCL Sizing up the short - mkt cap of this stonk is now greater than USDC mkt cap - remember, as rates go lower... so do their "profits" - competition in stables space is going to be insane, given it's such a simple product to offer - i've never seen an IPO go 10x in like 2 weeks... - so yeah. bubble. who knows what happens next. - but i'm sizing this one up. not my first rodeo. size manage properly, always. V a lil simple math let's say stable cap is 100 bn (it's not, it's 60 bn) and they get 0.035 LT rate into perpetuity with 0.05 discount rate (i'm oversimplifying here and the way i justify this is let's just assume tons of adoption on the USDC mkt cap e.g. 50% higher and just put that at steady state - assume no competition) - that's 3.5 bn divided by 5% = $70 bn. or equal to today's mkt cap. anything that we see in the stock here going fwd is just going to retrace, fundamentally... idk when. but we're already at FULL AF valuation, fundamentally. chart bros won't do that math for you. but i will :)

We’ve long been eager to invest in Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the issuer of USDC, due to its vital role in the crypto ecosystem and straightforward revenue model. After years as a private company, CRCL recently went public, and its stock has rocketed—from an IPO range of $27–28 to over $240—yielding a ~780 % return for early investors in just weeks. 🏦 Why CRCL Matters Stablecoins at the core: CRCL issues USDC (USD-backed) and EURC (euro-backed), enabling fast, low-cost transfers, lending, and payments across crypto platforms and institutions. Infrastructure built for compliance: With a transparent, regulatory‐friendly setup, CRCL is poised to benefit from institutional adoption and improved global financial inclusion. Favorable regulation incoming: A pro-stablecoin bill passed the U.S. Senate last week, potentially streamlining fragmented rules—a huge win for CRCL’s legitimacy and future growth. 📈 Revenue & Scalability Interest income engine: CRCL earns revenue by investing reserves (from issued stablecoins) in treasuries and cash securities. Low incremental costs: Issuing more stablecoins doesn’t significantly raise costs, giving the business strong operating leverage. Cyclical dependence on interest rates: As the Fed signals rate cuts, CRCL’s margins and profits may experience pressure despite growing stablecoin usage. 💰 Valuation Concerns Stratospheric multiples: With a market cap of ~$52 billion against ~$1.8 billion in annual revenue, CRCL trades at ~29× sales and ~305× earnings—levels we find tough to justify given the interest-rate dependency. Short- to medium-term softness: With expected rate cuts, we believe near-term margins could contract, likely keeping multiples high or valuations pressured. 🔧 Our Preferred Strategy: Selling Puts Rather than buying CRCL outright at these levels, we’re selling put options—specifically the October 17th $80 strike puts, currently priced around $3.80: Attractive yield: Generates about 4.5 % over 117 days, annualized to ~14.3 %. Flexibility: If CRCL stays above $80 by October, we pocket the premium; if it falls below, we buy at an effective cost basis near $76.20—a steep discount (66 %) to today’s stock price ($240). Risk‑reward balance: We get income now, plus optionality to own CRCL at a safer valuation if assigned—potentially capturing long-term upside without front-loading risk. ⚠ Risks to Watch Assignment downside: If CRCL collapses to zero, we’ll still owe $80/share—mirroring stock-ownership risk. Interest-rate sensitivity: Profits remain tied to rate levels; moves down could crimp margins even if adoption grows. Systemic risks: Any regulatory, technical, or confidence failure around stablecoins or USDC could materially impact CRCL. 🧭 Our Conclusion We see CRCL as a high-potential yet pricey bet today. However, selling deep out-of-the-money puts allows us to capture compelling yield while preserving upside optionality to own shares at a discount. It blends income generation with strategic positioning in a high-conviction long-term theme. Rating: Hold — we prefer income and optionality over full exposure at the current valuation.

As you can see after a good ride from 102 to 234 now the stock looks overbought. and on shorter time frames the price action shows a classic pattern of double top and breaking the previous support. simply if the stock closes 15 m candle below the support you might see a short retest to the support from downside that is a good point to short.

Don't normally play shorts, but this one is extremely over-valued here and I fancy a shot... Circle pay Coinbase about 50% of their revenue, it's just a stablecoin which does not even keep all it's profits, yet it's market cap is not all that far off COIN's marketcap now.

CRCL (“Circle”) | Long | Stablecoin & Institutional Crypto Infrastructure | (June 17, 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: Circle, known for its USDC stablecoin and institutional crypto infrastructure, displays a financially solid foundation with healthy free cash flow and an evolving product footprint, making it a compelling long-term play. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long Entry: Blue-chip levels in the $100–$120 zone (assumed range near current $160) Stop Loss: ~$90 (well beneath key support zones) Take Profit 1 (TP1): $200 (psychological & projected 5‑year mid-target) Take Profit 2 (TP2): $250 (upper end of 5‑year expectation) 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ Latest revenue: ~$1.6 B with net income around $155 M; ~82–87 M floating shares, market cap ~$3 B. ✅ Free cash flow is ~6x less debt and matches cash levels—pointing to strong liquidity and balance sheet health. ✅ CEO Jeremy Allaire (since 2013) leads Circle’s path from peer payments to global crypto-financial infrastructure. ✅ Core stablecoin USDC, built on numerous chains (Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Optimism…), fuels 24/7 trading and reserves—~98% of income comes from net interest on reserves. ✅ Major partnerships include Visa, Shopify, Walmart, Ripple, Ledger, Coinbase, plus backing from Goldman Sachs—highlighting institutional trust. ✅ Regulatory-first design and transparency position Circle favorably amid evolving global crypto frameworks. 4️⃣ Optional Follow‑up Note: Will track key industry catalysts: regulatory clarifications (e.g. EU’s MiCA), stablecoin adoption rates, yield curve shifts impacting interest income, and enterprise integration announcements. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you find value in this idea! Also share your thoughts and charts in the comments section below! This supports keeping content free and reaching more people.

6/16/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:CRCL I'm short - it's much easier to find shorts in this tape than the converse - NYSE:CRCL is the chitstablecoin that broke a few yrs ago and nobody serious in "crypto" (when i mention "serious" i mean bitcoiners) uses - they basically hold deposits and give you a USD-style token and earn the spread - but if you look at financials... they don't make nearly as much $ as they should on these deposits - ofc they'll tell you they're doing a lot of other silly things - "yes" stables and the stables economy r red hot (hence the stonk price reaction). also kudos to them for IPO'ing in this window. it was really a great time to do it. so hats off. - but what is an inferior stable (USDT/ tether is the only legit product on the market) worth? - multiple hundreds of times PE? - 10x book? - guys... this is basically a one-trick-pony-bank, they aren't reinventing the wheel, and most products built around USDC won't likely be launched by circle b/c the org is slow/ expensive and will be highly regulated to doing such things in a reasonable window of time - so will it go higher? idk. idc. i'm looking for shorts. - this one is a bit OTM for oct. it's a helluva expensive short, probably for good reason - but i don't think this valuation holds - and it's great offset/ hedge to my monster OTC:OBTC stack, which i expect a convert in the next 2-3m to ETF, which means 15% upside on this holding. so i need an offset here, hence i'm looking for some beta-adjacent hedges. V

CRCL. A beautiful retest on liquidity zone. The stock retraced to exact marked levels and grabbed all the liquidity two times near 102 to 104. UP 31% till now.

All this hype... over a company behind a $1 coin ? Circle just pulled off one of the biggest IPO wins of the year , shares nearly tripled on debut Welcome to the world of stablecoins crypto’s least flashy but most essential sector Unlike speculative tokens chasing the next moonshot, stablecoins like USDC are built to not move. They’re engineered to stick at $1, no matter what. And yet, they’ve quietly moved trillions in value, underpinned the DeFi ecosystem, enabled fast global payments, and now sit at the center of U.S. regulatory plans for digital finance. So what is a stablecoin, really? And why is Circle suddenly Wall Street’s favorite crypto firm? While Bitcoin whipsaws through double digit swings, stablecoins are designed for one thing: stability . One USDC equals one US dollar! Period. That’s backed by real reserves dollars or short-term Treasuries. You deposit a dollar, Circle mints a USDC. You redeem it, they burn the token and return your cash, Simple? Yes. But with major upside: 🌍 Global access: Anyone online can hold a dollar-equivalent without a U.S. bank. ⚡ Always on transfers: No delays, no bank hours—instant settlement, 24/7. 🔁 Programmable payments: Developers can move value like data—automated, fast, and borderless. Think of it as the dollar upgraded for the internet age! No surprise fintechs, payment rails, and crypto protocols are scrambling to integrate stablecoins. Circle runs USDC the second largest stablecoin globally with ~$61 billion in circulation. Only Tether (USDT) is bigger, with over $ 155 billion. Now, with a massive IPO and public market momentum, Circle isn’t just a crypto story it’s a finance one. Circle Isn’t Playing Tether’s Game, It’s Playing Wall Street’s Tether may lead the stablecoin space by volume, but Circle is making a different play: credibility While Tether has long drawn scrutiny over opaque reserves and offshore operations—now headquartered in El Salvador , Circle has positioned itself as the clean, compliant alternative. U.S regulated, audit friendly, and institution first Circle doesn’t want to be the biggest. It wants to be the most trusted especially by regulators, enterprises, and fintechs building on crypto infrastructure. So What Does Circle Actually Do? It issues and redeems USDC Users send $1, get 1 USDC. Send it back, get $1. Fully backed, no games, no algorithms just a straightforward peg Safeguards the reserves Circle holds the backing funds in cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries—managed in part by BlackRock. Reserves are publicly attested each month, offering far more transparency than Tether. Earns yield Here’s the real business model: Circle earns interest on the dollars it holds. With high rates in 2023, that added up to hundreds of millions in revenue—most of it from Treasury returns. Builds infrastructure Beyond issuing coins, Circle is quietly becoming the foundation for crypto finance. It provides APIs for wallets, powers fintech platforms, and integrates with major players like Visa, Stripe, and Coinbase. Think of it less like PayPal, and more like the plumbing that PayPal could eventually run on. The Model Is Simple and Profitable . Circle doesn’t need to charge transaction fees or run a flashy exchange. It earns by holding tens of billions in reserves and collecting the interest. In FY2024, $1.7 billion of its revenue came from just that. Everything else platform fees, API access was minor in comparison. Circle is betting that in the next phase of digital finance, trust is the real currency. The Surprise? Circle’s Actually Profitable Circle didn’t just rake in revenue—it made real money. The company posted $167 million in operating income for FY24, translating to a clean 9% margin. That’s after paying out over $1 billion in partner fees, with the bulk going to Coinbase, which takes a 50% cut of net USDC revenue. Despite those hefty payouts, Circle is firmly in the black. But here’s what’s critical to understand: most of the assets backing USDC aren’t on Circle’s books. They’re held off balance sheet in the Circle Reserve Fund, managed by BlackRock The fund is legally distinct and custodied by BNY Mellon. It holds U.S. Treasuries and cash to back every USDC in circulation. But these reserves don’t count as Circle’s corporate assets they’re held in trust for USDC holders. As a result, even though Circle controls more than $50 billion in reserve assets, those don’t appear on its balance sheet in the traditional sense. You’ll find them in footnotes, attestations, and disclosures ,not in line-item equity or cash. This structure gives Circle both regulatory clarity and balance sheet flexibility while ensuring that users’ dollars are safely ring-fenced.

📉 CRCL Weekly Bearish Setup (Week of 2025-06-09) 🔍 Ticker: NYSE:CRCL Multi-model AI consensus indicates a bearish short-term outlook for CRCL this week, driven by weak technicals, downside pressure from max pain, and poor option liquidity. 🧠 Model Summaries: 🔹 Grok/xAI • 📉 Bearish: Price below 10EMA, negative MACD, RSI near 41 • 🧊 Support: $115.20 | Resistance: $116.34 • ⚠️ Max Pain: $100 → downside bias • 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put (Jun 20) → PT: +50%, SL: –50% 🔹 Claude/Anthropic • 📉 Bearish intraday: below EMAs, negative MACD, RSI ~41 • ⚠️ Max pain at $100, light OI → downside risk • 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put @ ~$12.95 → Target 30–50%, SL: 25% 🔹 Llama/Meta • ⚖️ Mixed: Slight short-term bearish tilt, but warns against poor liquidity • 💸 Trade: No Trade due to spread/premium inefficiency 🔹 Gemini/Google • 📊 Daily trend bullish, but intraday showing exhaustion • ⚠️ Extreme spreads, no open interest • 💸 Trade: No Trade recommended 🔹 DeepSeek • 🚨 Strong Bearish: Breakdown of $115.20 w/ volume, negative MACD, RSI ~41 • ⚠️ Sentiment: Max pain at $100 + bid-side put action • 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put @ $12.70 → PT: $18.90 (+50%), SL: $8.82 (–30%) • 🔥 Confidence: 80% ✅ Market Consensus: 📉 Outlook: Bearish Bias – Short-term momentum is weak (price < EMAs, MACD negative) – RSI ~41 suggests downside room – Max pain at $100 = gravity effect – VIX falling = no panic relief for bulls – Key Level to Watch: Breakdown below $115 = confirmation 📌 Suggested Trade Setup 🎯 Symbol: NYSE:CRCL 🟢 Strike: 115 PUT 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-20 💵 Entry: $13.30 (ask) 🎯 Profit Target: $19.95 (+50%) 🛑 Stop Loss: $9.31 (–30%) 📈 Confidence: 75% ⏰ Entry Timing: At open ⚠️ Risk Watch: • ☠️ High premium & wide bid-ask spreads = slippage risk • ⛔ Low open interest = exit uncertainty • 🕒 Theta decay accelerates late in the week • 📈 Invalidated if price breaks above $116.34 • 📰 Unexpected crypto/news rallies = trend reversal risk 📊 TRADE JSON 💬 Are you trading this NYSE:CRCL bearish setup? Share your thoughts below. 📉📈 Follow for daily AI-powered trade breakdowns.