we are in a critical zone right now on BTC, we're about to break to previous 4h high which will make a market structure shift and it will lead us to the untapped 50% retracement e didn't touched yet around $78,995 unless we closed below the local low. Here is my 2 scenarios I'm waiting to play. But even if we have a pump the ultimate target is at the macro 0.618 retracement exactly at $57,844.

📊#BTC Extended Wedge? 🧠From a structural perspective, we still haven't seen a strong breakout. It hasn't even reached the resistance zone around 73600 that I'm watching. We've attempted to break upwards three times without success, indicating market weakness. If the market price can't stabilize above 72200 today, then we need to be wary of the risk of a sharp drop! ➡️The support around 70600 has acted as support three times. If the price comes back here, I think its effectiveness as support will be greatly reduced. The support around 70000 might be more effective. The more noteworthy support zone is around 67600, with extreme support around 65600! ➡️From a model perspective, there's a chance of an extended wedge forming here. This model is in a resistance zone, so we need to be wary of a potential decline. 🤜Follow me, and I'll guide you through market changes. Remember to like💖 and share💬 BITGET:BTCUSDT.P

Since the point where the red arrow was placed on the chart, Bitcoin’s bullish phase on higher timeframes has ended, and the market has entered a bearish phase. The bearish phase is either forming an ABC structure with an X wave, where we are currently in wave X, or a diametric pattern, where price is now in wave D. For a proper bearish structure to develop, it is preferable for price to reach the red marked zone. Bitcoin’s movements are slow and exhausting, and in such conditions it tends to cause the most losses for impatient traders. If the identified diametric structure for wave D/X is correct, the best area for the completion of wave E of this pattern is the red zone. As you know, the market currently lacks confidence in Bitcoin’s bullish moves, which is why strong impulsive upside movements are not forming. Stay with us for the next Bitcoin updates so you don’t miss the upcoming developments. If you have a coin or altcoin you want analyzed, first hit the like button and then comment its name so I can review it for you. Do you also think BITCOIN is bullish?

Since Wednesday, we were watching for price to either pull back into demand or push up into supply. The Bulls made the first move. They ran price straight into the 1H Supply Range, but the Bears were ready. They stepped in and dumped it right back down, almost tapping demand. Almost. Right before it got there, the Bulls stepped in, stopped the drop, and ran it right back up to supply again. And once again, the Bears said no. Another rejection. Now the Bulls are stuck, struggling to hold above the Local VAH. And this is where things start to matter. If the Bulls lose the VAH, you already know how this plays out. The Value Area does what Value Area always does, VAH to POC to VAL. Lose the top, and price starts searching for the middle. That puts the POC right in play. Now yes, the Bulls still have demand sitting below as support, but let’s be honest for a second. Do you really want to rely on demand in a Bear market, while price is still sitting on the premium side of the range? That is a risky game. Because if the Bears decide to stop playing defense and hit the gas, they could slice right through that demand like it is not even there. And if that happens, the next real shot for the Bulls is down at the 12H Rrder Block, lining up clean with the Local POC on the discount side of the Current Range. That is the zone. That is where a real bounce could happen. But let’s keep it real. How many times can the Bulls defend the POC before it finally breaks? Because once it does, the story changes.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is extending its 2-month consolidation since the February 02 Low, receiving a small boost by the 2-week ceasefire deal. This boost wasn't enough to even test the March High, so the long-term bearish outlook remains intact. BTC has been within a 6-month Bear Cycle and most likely has another 6 months left. The Fibonacci Channel since 2018 shows that each Bear Cycle extended between at least five Fib levels: 2018 between 0.786 - 0.0 and 2022 between 1.0 - 0.382. The 2022 one was -7% less than 2018, so if this holds we are looking at the current Bear Cycle to bottom after completing a -70% total decline. This matches perfectly the 0.382 Channel Fib and the 1W MA500 (black trend-line), which is the next MA support after the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) which was where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed and two below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) which as where the 2018 one bottomed. As a result, we expect Bitcoin's next Low to be around $47000 (1W MA350) with a final bottom around $38000 (1W MA500) being possible but depends on circumstances that we will monitor weekly and update here when needed. So do you think BTC's next stop is below $50k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇

Well, the Bulls kicked off the week strong, real strong. It looked like they were ready to make a clean run straight to the Macro Range Low. Confidence was high, momentum was there, everything was lining up. But then, here come the Bears. The past few days, the Bulls have barely made any real progress, inching forward, step by step, only to get smacked back down every single time they get close. It is like watching someone climb a mountain, just to keep slipping right before the top. So now the question is, what do you do? Right below, there is a 12H Demand Range sitting as support, which gives the Bulls some room to breathe. They could pull back, regroup, get themselves together, and make another push toward the Macro Range Low. But here is the catch. They cannot afford to get too comfortable down there. If the Bulls take too long, if they hesitate, if they lose that momentum, the Bears are going to notice. And once they do, they could attack hard, push straight through that demand, break out of the Bear Flag, and send the Bulls into full panic mode. And when panic hits the market, that is when things get real interesting

BTC is sitting at 71,782 after one of the most aggressive short squeezes we have seen in weeks. Price broke out of the descending channel that contained price since the 75k rejection, swept through every liquidity cluster on the way up, and is now consolidating inside the daily gap zone between 71k and 73.3k. The move was real. Volume on the breakout candle was the highest in weeks and VAH has been reclaimed and held on the first retest. Structurally this is the most bullish the chart has looked in over a month. But CPI drops today at 20:30. Forecast 1.0% month on month versus 0.3% prior. That number changes everything depending on how it prints. Three scenarios going into the print. Scenario 1 — Liquidity grab to 73.3k then rejection. Price sweeps the short liquidation cluster sitting at 73.3k before CPI, triggers the stops above, and then a hot inflation print sends it straight back down. This is the cleanest short setup on the chart right now. Entry on the rejection candle from 73.3k, stop above 74k, targets 70k then 68k on continuation. Scenario 2 — Rejection from current levels, 70k reaction. Price never reaches 73.3k. Starts fading here as traders de-risk ahead of the print. 70k is the critical support — that zone holds and it becomes a long scalp back to 71.5k. Loses 70k on a 4h close and the move opens toward 68k then 65-66k with nothing meaningful in between. Scenario 3 — Flip 73.3k and hold above it. CPI comes in softer than expected. Clean 4h close above 73.3k with follow through. Daily gap fully accepted, next targets 75k then 76k. This is the bull continuation scenario but requires a genuine inflation surprise to the downside. Lower probability given the macro backdrop but cannot be ignored if the data cooperates. The highest probability setup today is Scenario 1. The liq grab to 73.3k followed by a CPI-driven rejection gives you a defined entry, a tight stop, and the macro catalyst to accelerate the move. Risk reward is clean. 70k is the level that decides everything tonight. Hold it and bulls stay in control. Lose it and the entire pump from 65k gets retraced fast. 20:30 is the moment.

Yesterday showed us, why Counter trading needs more risk management. S1 Zone had a good start for shorting BTC and getting into the premium zone under 70.5k. In this cases I pushed my SL fast towards break even and bitcoin proved us why. S1 got liquidated with an impuls. S2 showed also some reaction, but was liquidated during midnight too (European time). Counter trades should always risk less capital than trending setups! My playbook I am looking for getting price under 70.5k to create an internal shift or use the L3 zone for creating an reversing structure to go long. What are your thoughts?

📉 BTCUSD Trading Setup – Short Opportunity Bitcoin is showing weakness from a key supply zone around 71,900 🔻 — potential continuation to the downside. 💡 Trade Idea (30-Min Time Frame): ➡️ Sell from supply: 71,900 🎯 Targets: 🥇 1st Target: 71,200 🥈 2nd Target: 70,800 ⚠️ Risk Management Matters! ✔️ Always place a stop loss ✔️ Manage your lot size wisely ✔️ Avoid emotional trading 📊 Smart trading = Patience + Discipline 🔥 Like | 💬 Comment | 🔁 Share | ➕ Follow for more setups #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #Scalping #TradingSignals

Bitcoin has now been in a downtrend for six months and the chart is not offering any fresh reasons for optimism. The story has not changed in weeks. Price bottomed out near 61,000 in mid-February, staged a modest recovery into the low 70s, and has been chopping sideways in that range ever since without any meaningful attempt to reclaim the overhead moving averages. It is the kind of slow, exhausting price action that tends to shake out the remaining bulls before any real bottom is confirmed. Where we stand: Price is currently trading at 71,963, up a marginal 0.21% on the day and sitting in the middle of the range it has occupied for the past six weeks. The EMA 100 (83,619) and EMA 200 (75,429) are both declining above, and while the EMA 200 is now within closer reach than it has been in months, price has yet to make a serious attempt at reclaiming it. Every push toward the 74,000-75,000 area has faded, and the pattern of lower highs within the broader downtrend remains intact. The fact that the wider macro environment is under pressure right now adds another layer of difficulty for any recovery attempt. The key question remains the same one it has been for weeks. Is this range a base being quietly built before a move higher, or is it simply a consolidation before the next leg down toward 61,000 and potentially below? Levels to watch: 75,429 (EMA 200) is the level that defines everything right now. Price has been knocking on the door of this level for weeks without breaking through. A daily close above it with conviction would be the first structural shift worth paying attention to in months and would open the door toward the EMA 100 at 83,619. 83,619 (EMA 100) remains a distant target but the one that would genuinely signal a trend change. Both EMAs are still declining, so even reclaiming them does not guarantee a full reversal, but it would at minimum end the pattern of lower highs that has defined this bear market. 61,000 is the February swing low and the level that cannot be lost. A daily close below it would break the only higher low bulls have to point to and open up a much more serious conversation about deeper downside toward the 50,000-55,000 area. Bias: Bearish below 75,429. The structure has not changed and the EMAs remain overhead resistance until price proves otherwise. Invalidation: Daily close above 75,429 (EMA 200) with follow-through toward 83,619. Not financial advice. Trade your own plan.