Ethereum’s 19-Day ETF Inflow Streak: What Really Happened to Price, Structure, and Sentiment Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 2. ETF Backdrop: How the 19-Day Inflow Wave Took Shape 3. Chronology of Price: Day-by-Day Performance 4. Weekly Chart Anatomy: The “Pre-Tower Top” Signal Explained 5. Intraday Technicals: From $2,450 Low to the $2,620 Hurdle 6. On-Chain & Derivatives Lens: Funding, OI, CEX Balances 7. Fundamental Undercurrents: Dencun Afterglow, L2 Fees, Staking Yields 8. Risks & Catalysts: ETH vs. Macro, vs. BTC Dominance, vs. SEC Noise 9. Playbooks for Traders and Long-Term Allocators 10. Conclusion: A Pause, Not a Peak—If Key Levels Hold ________________________________________ 1. Executive Summary • Ethereum received 19 consecutive days of net inflows into spot-linked exchange-traded products (ETPs) totaling $1.37 billion, the longest positive streak since the 2021 bull-run. • Over the same period ETH/USD rose 18.4 %, printing a local high at $2,750, but has since pulled back to $2,575 amid broad crypto risk-off and Middle-East tensions. • The latest weekly candle morphs into a “pre-tower top” pattern—two tall green candles followed by a small-bodied doji—often a harbinger of heavy distribution if confirmed by another red week. • Short-term structure improved Monday: price pierced a contracting-triangle ceiling at $2,550, reclaimed the 100-hour SMA, and now eyes $2,620 as the gatekeeper to renewed upside. • Funding rates flipped neutral, exchange reserves hit a 7-year low, and staking deposits outpace withdrawals 1.7 : 1—on-chain signs that the sell-off is more leverage shakeout than top formation. ________________________________________ 2. ETF Backdrop: How the 19-Day Inflow Wave Took Shape 2.1. The Players Unlike Bitcoin’s mammoth U.S. spot ETFs, Ethereum’s inflow streak drew from Europe and Canada, where physically backed ETPs have traded since 2021. The three biggest contributors: Product Country 19-Day Net Flow AUM Growth 21Shares Ethereum ETP (AETH) Switzerland +$502 m +38 % CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF (ETHX) Canada +$458 m +29 % WisdomTree Physical Ethereum EU +$227 m +24 % Rumors of an SEC approval window “after the U.S. election” sparked pre-positioning; asset managers figured it was cheaper to accumulate now than chase later once liquidity explodes on Wall Street. 2.2. Flow Mechanics When an ETP issues new shares, it must buy spot ETH or tap an AP that can supply coins—direct demand unmatched by equivalent selling pressure. Over the 19-day window, the net 396 k ETH of creation equaled 57 % of all new issuance from block rewards post-Dencun, creating a measurable supply squeeze. 2.3. Historical Context The only longer stretch was January–February 2021 (27 days), which culminated in ETH exploding from $1,400 to $2,000. The key difference today: market cap is six times larger, so identical inflows exert a milder percentage impact, explaining why price “only” added ~18 %. ________________________________________ 3. Chronology of Price: Day-by-Day Performance Day Date ETF Net Flow Price Close % Δ vs. Prior Day 1 Mar 18 +$58 m $2,110 — 5 Mar 22 +$73 m $2,265 +7.3 % 10 Mar 27 +$94 m $2,430 +2.4 % 15 Apr 1 +$125 m $2,690 +3.8 % 19 Apr 5 +$81 m $2,750 +0.9 % Across the stretch, realized volatility rose from 32 % to 46 %, but skew stayed positive, showing call demand outpaced puts until the very end, when geopolitical headlines flipped sentiment. ________________________________________ 4. Weekly Chart Anatomy: The “Pre-Tower Top” Signal Explained 4.1. What Is a Tower Top? In candlestick lore, a tower top comprises: 1. A tall green candle (strong breakout) 2. Another tall green candle (exhaustion) 3. A narrow doji or spinning top (equilibrium) 4. A large red candle (breakdown confirmation) We currently have the first three pieces: the last two weeks of March delivered back-to-back 10 % advances; the first week of April closed as a +0.6 % doji. The pattern is not confirmed until a decisive red week engulfs the doji body (< $2,540). 4.2. Indicators • RSI (weekly): 59 → ticking down from 68 high; still shy of overbought. • MACD histogram: Positive but flattening. • Bollinger bands: Price mid-point of upper band, room for one more expansion. Conclusion: the candle warns of fatigue, but momentum hasn’t rolled over—yet. ________________________________________ 5. Intraday Technicals: From $2,450 Low to the $2,620 Hurdle 5.1. Hourly Chart (Kraken Feed) • Triangle Breakout: Price sliced through descending trend-line at $2,550, tagging $2,590. • Moving Averages: ETH trades marginally above the 100-hour SMA ($2,575) but below the 200-hour ($2,610). • Fibonacci Zones: $2,620 aligns with 0.5 retrace of the $2,750→$2,450 fall—classic reversal pivot. A clean hourly close >$2,620 opens the door to $2,680 (0.618 Fib) and psychological $2,700. Failure rejects to $2,520 support cluster. 5.2. Order-Book Heat Map Coinbase Pro data shows 1,300 ETH ask wall at $2,620 and a thinner 890 ETH bid at $2,520. Liquidity skew favors dip-buying, but bulls need market orders >1 k ETH to smash the ask block. ________________________________________ 6. On-Chain & Derivatives Lens 6.1. Exchange Reserves Centralized exchanges now hold 12.9 million ETH, lowest since July 2017. The 19-day ETF harvest accelerated an already extant down-trend of roughly 60 k ETH/week outflows, mostly into staking contracts and L2 bridges. 6.2. Staking Flows • Beacon deposit contract: +188 k in April’s first week. • Withdrawal queue: 11 k ETH—tiny relative to deposits. • Effective deposit APR after Dencun: 3.2 %, still beating U.S. 2-year T-notes post-tax for many investors. 6.3. Perpetual Funding & OI • Funding normalized to 0.007 %/8 h (≈ 3.2 % APR), down from 9 % at March highs—spec longs flushed. • Open Interest shed $420 m in the two-day dip—liquidations, not fresh shorts, drove the wash-out. 6.4. Options Skew • 25-delta risk reversal (1-month): flipped to –4 % (puts pricier than calls) for first time since January—hedging demand but nowhere near panic-level (–12 % in 2022 bear). ________________________________________ 7. Fundamental Undercurrents 7.1. Dencun Afterglow & L2 Fees Proto-danksharding (EIP-4844) slashed L2 data costs by 85 %, pushing average Arbitrum and Optimism transaction fees under $0.02. Cheaper blockspace fuels on-chain activity: Metric Pre-Dencun Post-Dencun Δ Daily L2 Txns 2.4 m 4.1 m +71 % Bridged ETH to L2s 6.8 m 7.9 m +16 % More usage → more gas burned → structural tailwind to ETH as a fee-burn asset. 7.2. DeFi TVL Total value locked rebounded to $61 billion, led by EigenLayer and restaking hype. ETH comprises 68 % of TVL collateral—every lending loop pins additional demand. 7.3. Competing Narratives • Solana season siphoned retail mind-share; SOL/ETH ratio popped 42 % YTD. • Bitcoin L2s (Stacks, Rootstock) attempt to mirror Ethereum’s smart-contract moat, but dev tooling remains nascent. • Net: Ethereum retains developer supremacy (70 % of new GitHub commits among smart-contract chains) and therefore garners institutional comfort. ________________________________________ 8. Risks & Catalysts Factor Bearish Angle Bullish Rebuttal Macro Sticky U.S. CPI halts Fed cuts → higher real yields weigh on non-yielders ETH staking yield + MEV is real cash-flow; Dencun lowers L2 costs → adoption offset SEC Spot ETF Delay past Jan 2026 or outright denial kills U.S. inflow dream 19-day streak proves ex-U.S. capital is hungry; approval >0 is all it takes for supply shock BTC Dominance Halving FOMO may keep Bitcoin’s share >55 %, starve ETH rotation Historical pattern: ETH rips 6-10 weeks post-halving as beta plays catch-up Tower-Top Pattern Weekly confirmation could spark drop to $2,200 support Pattern fails if bulls recapture $2,750 quickly, turning doji into bullish flag ________________________________________ 9. Playbooks for Traders and Long-Term Allocators 9.1. Short-Term Momentum (0–7 days) • Bias: Range-trade $2,520–$2,620 until breakout. • Instruments: ETH-perp on Bybit/Deribit, 3× leveraged tokens for reduced funding bleed. • Trigger: 15-minute candle above $2,620 with ≥ $50 m aggregated CVD buys. • Stop: $2,560 (triangle retest). • Target: $2,680 then $2,700. 9.2. Swing (1–8 weeks) • Bias: Accumulate dips as long as weekly stays >$2,350 (0.382 Fib of Oct→Mar leg). • Tools: 1-month $2,500-$2,800 call spreads; spot with 25 % collar protection. • Catalysts: SEC commentary May 23, FOMC June 18. 9.3. Position (6–18 months) • Bias: Dollar-cost average into staking nodes; carry 4 % ETH on portfolio NAV. • Thesis: EIP-4844 usage boom + probable U.S. ETF = $4–5 k fair value by 2026. • Risk Control: Hedge 25 % notional via BTC-perp short if BTC.D >58 %. ________________________________________ 10. Conclusion: A Pause, Not a Peak—If Key Levels Hold The 19-day ETF inflow streak proves that institutional demand for Ethereum exists even without a U.S. spot vehicle. Price responded vigorously but not parabolically, reflecting the asset’s growing market-cap gravity. The nascent “pre-tower-top” weekly candle warns of exhaustion; confirmation, however, requires another bearish week that cracks $2,540 support. Short-term order-flow shows willing dip buyers, staking metrics scream supply sink, and the macro backdrop—while shaky—fails to dent ETH’s relative value proposition versus fiat yields. Translation: Ethereum is vulnerable to headline-driven squalls but structurally sound. If bulls recapture $2,620, the path to retest $2,750 and ultimately $3,000 reopens. Lose $2,450 and the tower top will complete, sending ETH toward $2,200 where ETF inflow buyers likely reload. For now, the balance of evidence favors consolidation with an upward skew—tower construction, perhaps, but no wrecking ball yet.

📊 ETH/USD Technical Analysis – 1H Chart 🔍 Price Action Update – June 15, 2025 🧠 Market Insight: Ethereum has been consolidating within a well-defined horizontal channel, with strong support identified around the $2,510–$2,520 range. This accumulation zone has served as a base after a sharp regression trend that began following the recent local high. 🔍 Key Observations: Regression Trend: ETH experienced a significant downward movement earlier this week, forming a classic bullish accumulation pattern at support. Volume Profile Analysis: A noticeable volume node builds around the $2,530–$2,550 range, indicating a high interest area where buyers are stepping in. Breakout Confirmation: A bullish breakout above the horizontal resistance zone (~$2,555) is underway. This is further validated by the candlestick structure and increasing volume. Target Projection: Based on previous impulse moves and measured breakout height, the immediate upside target is projected at $2,726 (approx. +6.6% from breakout level). 🔑 Trade Idea: 📈 Bias: Bullish 🎯 Target: $2,726 🛡️ Support Zone: $2,510 – $2,520 ⚠️ Invalidation: Sustained close below $2,500 would invalidate the breakout structure and suggest reevaluation. 📎 Summary: Ethereum has entered a potential breakout phase after consolidating near key support. Traders should watch for follow-through volume to confirm momentum toward the $2,700+ target. Stay cautious of fake-outs and ensure proper risk management.

The Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 2,407.74 1st Support: 2,092.59 1st Resistance: 2,816.29 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.

ENTRY: 2582.66 TAKE PROFİT : 2770.95 STOP LOSS : 1/3 Do not use high leverage! Remember cash management (planning)! Please follow the stop-loss rule!

On the 4H timeframe we have a consolidation pattern with a bullish bias. Bitcoin is aiming higher after a close above EMA8 & 13 with higher lows. The drop 13-June found support perfectly at 0.786 Fib. retracement on a wick. The session closed above 0.618. The action turned bullish immediately and we are seeing slow but steady growth. The recent drop was a market reaction due to a geopolitical situation. As soon as the event is priced in, the market seeks balance and goes back to its previous trend. Bitcoin's bullish bias is not only supported by strong prices, $105,600 is very strong, but also by the altcoins and the cyclical nature of the market. While Bitcoin already produced several new all-time highs this year the altcoins are yet to do the same. A bull market happens every four years or the year after the halving. For Bitcoin this is already true but this is a marketwide event and the altcoins are yet to go there and this is a bullish factor and soon this will be obvious on the chart. We are 5-6 days away only from very strong bullish action. Notice that this isn't a long time, it is less than a week. The altcoins will reveal this bullish bias much sooner than Bitcoin but Bitcoin will also grow and hit a new all-time high soon. This new all-time high will be the catalyst for everything to boom. » Ignore the short-term it is all noise—crypto is going up. The next target is $107,558, followed by $109,508 on this timeframe. The latter being a mild resistance. The main target here is $119,165 and this is a good resistance zone. It can be rounded up to $120,000. If this level gets hit it will only confirm additional growth. The target that follows is $130,000 and the minimum for this cycle is $160,000 but we are aiming higher. Feel free to follow for more. I will continue to detail Bitcoin on all the timeframes as well as many of the top, mid- and small altcoins.

This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Remember to always research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions. Good luck! 📈💼🚀

We can find a good next target for Ethereum, which in the buy condition, you can see that a torch will come in the best cryptos, all the targets have been hit.

On both the 1D and 4H timeframes, price is still below the 200MA. On the daily chart, it's also trading under the BB center line, the SMA, and the MLR. However, on the 4H chart, price is now above the BB center line, SMA, and MLR — and it’s not far from triggering a long entry signal. On the daily, we’ve seen a bounce from strong support: the 0.5 Fib level and the 200-week MA. On the 4H, price looks ready to close above the last daily close — a promising sign. Always take profits and manage risk. Interaction is welcome.

Price delivered the sweep. Now it’s coiling inside my range, hovering just above the 1H OB like it’s waiting for permission. I don’t need permission. I need structure — and I’ve got it. The logic: ETH dropped into a clear demand zone — not a guess, a confirmed 1H Order Block. Since then, it’s printed compression just above the OB. Every wick into the range was absorbed — no expansion, just preparation. Above us? Two objectives: TP1: 2650 — inefficiency fill and previous high-volume rejection TP2: 2770 — full reprice and external liquidity sweep If price dips into the OB again? That’s not invalidation — that’s refinement. Execution: Entry: 2480–2500 (or on OB retest) SL: Below 2434 TP1: 2650 TP2: 2770 You don’t chase this. You wait for it — then load it without hesitation. Final thought: “Smart Money doesn’t buy the candle. It buys the context.”

After weeks of sideways price action, ETH has displayed multiple signals that regardless of worldwide geopolitical issues, we find ourselves in a great spot to trade the FIB channel, along with a simple trend exhaustion. This is my personal favourite when it comes to perspective of what is really happening within the crypto space at the moment. Lets get into the details! Trading within the FIB if the support levels can hold, we have tested the $2500 support level multiple times, we have also seen a BULLISH FLAG with a break down, into a PERFECT CUP & HANDLE to the upside. Along with confirmation of the trend exhaustion, we are seeing an uptick of bulls coming into the market and protecting the precious $2500 support line. As long as ETH remains above $2500 and can continue to trade within the FIB channel, this is a great opportunity to long. ETH is showing is resilience, lets see how this long trade plays out. This is my opinion only, do not use this as financial advice. Good luck and lets get some gains! 🚀