ALMA Long Add fired on the 4H candle. Entry zone ~$0.632–$0.640.
Trump's Iran speech overnight. VIRTUAL went from ~$0.74 to sub-$0.635 — a sharp flush into the MS Downsweep at $0.6326 (April 2, 12:00). The ALMA averaging strategy added. Score is moderate. The interesting part is elsewhere.
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Score breakdown (20.1 total):
ALMA Overheat: 7.2 — the main driver.
- 4H: Cur S=7, Avg S=5.0 → 1.4× overheat on the strategy timeframe. Entry condition met: diff=2 ≥ 1.
The entry condition is confirmed on the strategy TF (4H).
Deviation: 5.1 — 1D: 2.5, 3D: 2.5.
Both 1D and 3D EMAs are above current price, each contributing equally to the deviation score. Per MTF EMA table — see chart.
1st Bar Close: 2.5 — 1H confirmed below EMA (entry bar support).
Series: −0.5 — mixed. 1D and 4H have residual LONG series components. The setup is not textbook clean on the series dimension.
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The microstructure case — this is the interesting part:
Funding Rate: −0.075%
Negative funding means shorts are paying longs. At this price level. VIRTUAL is at $0.63, down 80%+ from its highs, and the funding is still negative. That means the crowd is actively maintaining short exposure on the way down — which is exactly the setup that precedes sharp short squeezes.
Long/Short Ratio Accounts: 0.46
68.89% of accounts are short. 31.5% long. The crowd is unanimously positioned for more downside.
Summary: crowd is short, paying for it. This is a setup where shorts are overstaying their welcome.
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SMC Class C: 0.8 — weak SMC confirmation.
SMC / FVG (4H):
Most recent events (April 2):
- MS Downsweep: $0.6326 (12:00) — structure swept the recent lows. Classic liquidation event.
- FVG Enter Bull: $0.6326, $0.6295, $0.6359 — multiple fresh bull FVGs established at current lows
- OB Enter Normal Bear: $0.6359 — bears defending just above
SMC (1D):
- MS Downsweep: $0.6451 (March 29) — prior 1D sweep
- FVG New Bear: $0.6558 (March 28) — active bearish FVG overhead
- FVG Bull: $0.6424 (March 30), $0.6451 (March 29) — support cluster
SMC (1W):
- MS Trend Up established at $1.4619 (Nov 25, 2024) — weekly bull trend technically intact from that anchor
- MS Downsweep: $0.7883 (Oct 6, 2025) — structural sweep happened at the highs
- Current price at $0.63 sits on the $0.6331 weekly labeled support level
- Falling Wedge forming on the weekly chart — pattern targets upper channel at ~$0.88–$0.91
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Strategy mechanics (ALMA Avg, Long Only, 4H):
Entry condition: each 4H bar where ALMA signal = SHORT and Cur S − Avg S ≥ 1. Currently: Cur S=7, Avg S=5.0 → diff=2. Condition met.
Position sizing: 25% equity per bar. Pyramiding enabled.
Exit condition: ALMA flips to LONG and LONG series overheats (Cur L / Avg L ≥ threshold on 4H).
Hard stop: 10% from average entry. Entry ~$0.635: Hard SL ≈ $0.572.
Backtest (Nov 1, 2024 – Apr 2, 2026):
- WR: 57.92% (234/404 trades)
- Profit Factor: 1.108 . This strategy barely wins on VIRTUAL.
- Avg profit: +14.47%, Avg loss: −8.30%
Transparent disclaimer: PF 1.108 means this strategy on VIRTUAL is borderline. The edge comes from infrequent large wins (+12%, +7%) against more frequent moderate losses. The current setup has a weaker score than the strategy's best entries (which reached 80–90+ Long Score).