TON is now standing at a critical inflection point — the 2.20–1.92 zone (yellow block).
This area isn’t just another support level — it’s the make-or-break zone that will decide whether TON will rebound for a macro reversal or collapse into a deeper downtrend.
After a sharp fall from the 8.28 high, price has reached its historical demand base, showing a strong wick rejection below support — a classic sign of liquidity sweep or stop-hunt, often marking the final shakeout before larger players begin accumulating.
However, without a clear structure break and volume confirmation, the risk of a fake bounce remains high.
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Structure & Pattern Analysis
1. Macro trend remains bearish, with a series of lower highs and lower lows since the 2024 peak.
2. The 2.20–1.92 zone represents a major accumulation range, also aligning with the previous breakout base from early 2023.
3. The deep wick indicates a potential spring phase in a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, where weak hands are flushed out.
4. A confirmed close above 2.65 would mark a structural shift — signaling a possible start of a new bullish leg.
5. On the other hand, a close below 1.92 would validate a macro breakdown, opening room for a prolonged bearish continuation.
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Bullish Scenario (Potential Reversal)
Confirmation: A 4D candle close above 2.65, supported by increasing volume.
Technical narrative: After a long liquidation event, price tends to form a V-shaped rebound or base breakout once smart money steps back in.
🎯 Upside Targets:
Target 1 → 3.55 (local distribution zone)
Target 2 → 4.60 (key structural pivot)
Target 3 → 6.84 – 8.09 (major supply zone & prior 2024 top)
💡 If momentum builds, this could evolve into a multi-month recovery rally, similar to the early bull phase of 2024.
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Bearish Scenario (Continuation Risk)
Confirmation: A 4D close below 1.92 confirms breakdown of the macro support.
Technical narrative: Once this zone fails, buyer exhaustion could drive price toward 1.50–1.20, the next historical liquidity pool.
🎯 Downside Targets:
Short-term support → 1.80
Extended range → 1.50 – 1.20
A proper reversal would then require a new long accumulation base forming at lower levels.
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Technical Summary
TON is currently hovering within its largest accumulation zone in over a year.
This yellow block (2.20–1.92) will determine the next major trend:
Hold and reclaim 2.65 → bullish reversal confirmed.
Fail and close below 1.92 → macro breakdown confirmed.
At this stage, TON offers a high-risk, high-reward setup for swing traders — ideal for those waiting for clear structural confirmation before entry.
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