🌀 ORACLE (ORCL) – Elliott Wave Supercycle Analysis | Smart Money & Fibonacci Confluence
🔭 Macro Perspective
Oracle’s long-term chart (NYSE: ORCL) showcases a powerful Supercycle (III) wave in motion — a multi-decade expansion phase fueled by institutional participation, structural growth, and technological innovation.
The internal Cycle waves (1–5) are clearly defined, with current price action positioned deep within Cycle Wave (3) — the strongest segment of this major bullish leg.
🟢 Supercycle Wave (I) (1987 – 2000)
Elliott Behavior: The first grand impulsive advance, representing Oracle’s rise during the early software and database revolution.
Fibonacci Structure: Wave (3) extended toward the 2.618× of Wave (1), typical of an early institutional growth wave.
SMC Dynamics:
Breaks of structure (BoS) at each impulsive stage.
Liquidity sweeps before rallies — consistent smart money accumulation patterns.
Fundamentals: Explosive earnings growth through enterprise software adoption and global market expansion.
💥 Conclusion: The dot-com peak in 2000 completed Supercycle (I).
🔵 Supercycle Wave (II) (2000 – 2002)
Nature: The sharp, emotion-driven retracement following the tech bubble.
Fibonacci Retracement: Retraced into the 0.236 zone of (I), providing the long-term discount region for accumulation.
SMC Characteristics:
Liquidity grab beneath 1998–1999 structure.
Long accumulation base confirming institutional re-entry.
Fundamentals: Oracle streamlined operations and built the groundwork for enterprise-level solutions.
🧱 Bottom: Wave (II) ended around 2002 — the base of today’s decades-long uptrend.
🟣 Supercycle Wave (III) (2002 – 2030s, ongoing)
This ongoing macro impulsive wave contains five internal Cycle Waves (1–5) .
⚪ Cycle Wave (1) (2002 – 2019)
Elliott Context: A powerful, sustained impulsive leg lasting nearly two decades.
Structure: Clean five-wave advance with strong extensions during 2010–2019.
Fibonacci Note: The move achieved near the 1.618× extension relative to its starting point.
SMC Insight:
Consistent higher highs and higher lows throughout the period.
BoS continuation patterns confirming institutional markup.
Fundamentals: Expansion of Oracle’s business model — cloud transition, data analytics, and enterprise software dominance.
📈 End: Cycle (1) peaked near 2019 , completing the first internal impulsive leg of Supercycle (III).
🔵 Cycle Wave (2) (2019 – 2020)
Nature: A sharp yet shallow correction that coincided with the global market decline (COVID crash).
Fibonacci Retracement: Retraced around the 0.236–0.382 zone of Wave (1).
SMC Dynamics:
Liquidity sweep under 2018–2019 structure.
Fast accumulation pattern — strong re-accumulation footprint.
Fundamentals: Short-term market shock, but Oracle’s fundamentals remained intact and rebounded swiftly.
🧭 Conclusion: Cycle (2) ended in 2020, setting the foundation for the explosive ongoing Cycle (3) rally.
🟢 Cycle Wave (3) (2020 – ~2026, in progress)
Elliott Context: The most powerful internal impulsive wave — currently unfolding.
Target Zone: Projected to complete near $380–$400 , expected around late 2025 to early 2026 .
Fibonacci Extension: The 2.618× extension of Wave (1) perfectly aligns near $400.
SMC & Market Structure:
Continuous BoS and HH–HL formations — clear institutional control.
No macro distribution yet; structure remains intact.
Liquidity inducements near highs suggest ongoing markup phase.
Price Action: Aggressive impulses, shallow retracements, and orderly continuation patterns.
Fundamentals:
Rapid expansion in Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), AI-driven services, and recurring revenue models.
Sustained EPS growth and improved margin performance support wave maturity.
🚀 Expectation: Completion near $400 will likely trigger a Cycle (4) corrective structure before the final impulsive push.
🟠 Cycle Wave (4) (Projected: 2026 – 2028)
Elliott Behavior: A corrective phase — retracing part of the strong Cycle (3) run.
Fibonacci Retracement: Expected correction into the 0.236–0.382 zone of Wave (3), roughly $200–$280.
SMC Insight:
Break of structure (BoS) near top zones to induce liquidity.
Re-accumulation base forming after liquidity sweep below key supports.
Market Psychology: Cooling from euphoria, consolidation, and rebalancing of valuations.
Fundamentals: Period of stabilization after several years of aggressive expansion.
📉 Outlook: Likely forms the structural foundation for the next rally phase (Cycle 5).
🟢 Cycle Wave (5) (Projected: 2028 – early 2030s)
Elliott Context: The final impulsive leg completing Supercycle (III).
Target Zone: Fibonacci 3.618× extension (~$900–$950) of Cycle (1).
SMC Structure:
Final markup phase with strong BoS continuation patterns.
Climax rallies as retail sentiment peaks.
Price Action: Parabolic trend, thin retracements, and expanding volatility.
Fundamentals: Oracle could cement its dominance in global data, AI, and enterprise infrastructure markets.
💎 Completion: Cycle (5) will mark the end of Supercycle (III), leading into the long-term corrective Supercycle (IV).
🔶 Supercycle Wave (IV) (Projected: 2030s – 2040s)
Nature: Major macro correction after decades of expansion.
Fibonacci Depth: Likely retraces into the 0.382–0.5 zone of (III).
SMC Behavior: Distribution → liquidity sweep → re-accumulation.
Market Context: Could align with macroeconomic tightening or sectoral rotation.
📊 Purpose: To reset valuations and build energy for the final Supercycle (V).
🟩 Supercycle Wave (V) (Projected: 2040s – 2050s)
Elliott Context: The final impulsive wave of Oracle’s century-long trend.
Fibonacci Target: 3.618× expansion (~$6,000).
SMC Behavior: Final institutional markup followed by distribution and secular reversal.
Fundamentals: Could coincide with Oracle’s role as a global AI–data infrastructure leader.
🚀 Legacy Wave: The culmination of decades of innovation and expansion.
⚙️ Macro Summary
Accumulation (1980s–1990s) – Smart money foundation.
Expansion (2000s–2020s) – Institutional markup phase.
Distribution (2030s) – Macro correction and rotation.
Re-accumulation (Post-2040s) – Long-term reset for future cycles.
🧠 Technical & Fundamental Alignment
✨ Elliott Structure: Clear impulsive (I–V) sequence with macro rhythm.
✨ Fibonacci Confluence: $400 (2.618× of Wave 1) & $900 (3.618× of Wave 1).
✨ SMC: Institutional control with clean BoS → reaccumulation → continuation.
✨ Price Action: Aggressive bullish order flow with no macro distribution yet.
✨ Fundamentals: Oracle’s AI + Cloud strategy drives sustainable growth.
🌍 Conclusion
Oracle (ORCL) continues to trend within Supercycle (III) — the most powerful long-term wave.
Cycle Wave (3): In progress, targeting $380–$400 by end of 2025 / early 2026.
Cycle Wave (4): Anticipated retracement toward $200–$280 zone.
Cycle Wave (5): Final impulsive run toward $900+ into the early 2030s.
📈 Macro Bias: Long-term bullish — institutional structure intact.
📊 Short-term Outlook: Momentum strong but nearing Cycle 3 completion; prepare for corrective rotation.
💬 Summary: Oracle’s price evolution beautifully mirrors its technological growth story — a near-perfect alignment of Elliott Wave symmetry , Smart Money structure , and fundamental strength . The completion of Cycle 3 near $400 will open the door to an ideal re-entry opportunity for the next macro leg higher.
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