Microsoft (MSFT) established a major all-time high on July 31, 2025, at $555.45. Afterward, the stock entered a significant correction that concluded on March 28, 2026, at $356.07. This decline has been classified as wave (II). Since then, the stock has advanced in wave (III). However, it must still climb above the prior peak at $555.45 to eliminate the risk of a double correction. The rally from the wave (II) low unfolded as a five-wave Elliott Wave impulse, which strengthens the probability of continued upside while prices remain above that level. From the wave (II) low, wave (1) ended at $386.29, followed by a pullback in wave (2) that terminated at $367.05. The stock then extended higher in wave (3), reaching $433.94, as shown on the thirty-minute chart. A subsequent pullback in wave (4) concluded at $404.61. The final advance in wave (5) ended at $445.24, completing wave ((1)). At present, a pullback in wave ((2)) is unfolding to correct the cycle from the March 28, 2026 low. This correction is expected to develop in either three or seven swings before the rally resumes. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $367.23 remains intact, dips should attract buyers in three or seven swings, supporting the case for further upside.

If you didn’t buy MSFT when they took a 49% stake in OpenAI: nor sold the Double Top: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 445usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2026-5-1, for a premium of approximately $6.95. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.

Delayed Recovery Signals Emerging in MSFT Microsoft at $423.45 displays a rare profile carrying "catch-up rally" potential with both rising risk appetite across the market and a breakout structure from the 5-month downtrend channel. How are market sentiment and fundamental outlook shaping up? The Fear and Greed Index climbing from 18 a month ago to 66 and the Put/Call ratio declining from 1.1 to 0.8 show that investors' need for downside protection has decreased and risk appetite has returned to the table. MSFT, lagging 16.9% behind the S&P 500's year-to-date rally, stands out among stocks that have not yet fully participated in the broader market recovery, and the $3.1 trillion market cap company being supported by 41 analysts with a "Strong Buy" recommendation signals that the fundamental outlook remains solid despite weak price performance. Price positioning below the 200-day exponential moving average but above the 20-day exponential moving average reveals that the stock has not yet fully emerged from the long-term downtrend but has begun gaining short-term momentum, and the MACD level at 5.10 above zero confirms that buying momentum is strengthening. How is technical momentum developing? The MACD indicator positioning at 10.65 significantly above its signal line (7.52) and the histogram expanding at +3.12 show upward momentum gaining strength, while the breakout from the upper band of the 5-month downtrend channel gives the first signal of a trend change. Volume profile analysis reveals that the most intense trading volume during the recent decline occurred at the $401.47 level, and this zone forms an extremely strong support foundation both psychologically and technically. The fundamental outlook supported by the consensus of 41 analysts confirms there is a strong fundamental foundation behind the technical breakout, and the Put/Call ratio declining to 0.8 reveals that the need for downside protection in options markets has decreased. The MACD histogram expanding at +3.12 shows that momentum gain is still in early stages and carries continuation potential, and when the significant rise in risk appetite across the market combines with the "delayed opportunities" environment created by the 16.9% performance lag versus the S&P 500, a rarely seen catch-up rally potential emerges. Which levels are critically important? The $401.47 level is identified as the POC (Point of Control) in the volume profile, and this level forms the strongest support foundation psychologically and technically as it represents the point where buyers and sellers met most intensely throughout the entire decline movement. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, in the major decline movement between $356.51 and $553.72, price is currently positioned at $423.45 between the 0.236 ($403.05) and 0.382 ($431.84) Fibonacci levels, and the POC level nearly perfectly overlapping with the 0.236 Fibonacci level shows this support forms a double-layered structure. If persistence above the 0.382 Fibonacci resistance at $431.84 is achieved, the $455.12 (0.5 Fibonacci) and then $478.39 (0.618 Fibonacci) levels can come into play as upside targets, and since the 0.618 level is accepted as the "golden ratio" in classic Fibonacci theory, persistence above this level is generally interpreted as the point where trend reversal is confirmed. Declines below the POC level of $401.47 create the risk of both MACD momentum weakening and the 0.236 Fibonacci support breaking together, and in that case a rapid pullback scenario toward the $356.51 lows could gain strength. What can be expected as a conclusion? When underperformance relative to the S&P 500, strong analyst consensus, and short-term momentum gain come together, the catch-up rally scenario stands out in MSFT, however maintaining the POC level and breaking through the 0.382 Fibonacci resistance are identified as critical conditions for this scenario to materialize. Thanks for reading!

This is price action of Msft. I have clearly explained how to manage your positions if you are entering at current price. NOTE:DO NOT BUY OPTIONS

Microsoft faces intense market scrutiny this quarter. Markets expect exceptionally strong Q1 earnings from the tech giant. The company rides a continuous wave of high expectations. Microsoft recently renewed its stock market highs alongside its peers. Enterprise cloud growth and AI adoption fuel this financial surge. However, tightening macroeconomic conditions require undeniable profitability. High-tech infrastructure demands immense scientific innovation and capital expenditure. Technology and Enterprise Patents Technology and patents dictate modern market leadership. Microsoft scales its Copilot technology rapidly across global enterprises. Accenture recently rolled out Copilot to a massive workforce. Patent portfolios show a clear strategic corporate focus. Microsoft dominates in enterprise software integration and workflow patents. Strategic industry partnerships define Microsoft's enterprise growth model. It partners with Tieto to scale European AI solutions. It also collaborates with Stellantis for automotive AI training. Cybersecurity and Threat Mitigation Rapid AI adoption introduces severe cybersecurity risks. Microsoft faces escalating threats within its vast corporate networks. Hackers increasingly pose as Microsoft support to breach defenses. Furthermore, security researchers recently discovered a critical Entra ID bug. This vulnerability allowed AI agents to escalate system privileges easily. Microsoft quickly patched this dangerous high-tech flaw. The company invests heavily in defensive cybersecurity patents. It must protect cloud infrastructure from advanced state-sponsored attacks. Science, Energy, and Geostrategy AI development requires unprecedented energy resources. Microsoft tackles this macroeconomic challenge directly and aggressively. It recently struck a major deal with Constellation Energy. Furthermore, Microsoft and Nvidia use AI to advance nuclear power. This scientific breakthrough addresses massive data center energy demands. Global positioning also influences corporate infrastructure strategies. Microsoft recently greenlit a massive $4 billion Leeds data hub. Meanwhile, leadership recently restructured its crucial OpenAI partnership. Analysts note a potential revenue cap in this new agreement.

Microsoft has corrected 22% from its late 2024 all time high near $539, bringing price back into a strong daily demand zone between $415 and $432. Current price around $427 sits directly inside the entry window. Entry Zone: $415 to $432 Stop Loss: $390 TP1: $455 (R:R 1:1) TP2: $490 (R:R 1:2) TP3: $522 (R:R 1:3) Technical Context: The $415 to $432 band was the consolidation base that launched the 2024 bull run to ATH. Price returning here is a first fresh test of this demand zone. Sellers are losing momentum over recent sessions with lower wicks and closes near mid range, pointing to absorption. COT Analysis: Latest Commitments of Traders data shows institutional equity exposure repositioning to the long side. USD long positions trimmed approximately 17% over recent weeks, historically a supportive signal for US equities and particularly tech. Large speculators are reducing net short exposure across the Nasdaq. Valuation: After a 22% correction MSFT is approaching fair value territory. Treasury yields (ZN and ZB) are rising, signaling falling rate expectations ahead of FOMC this week. Historically a falling rate environment expands multiples for high quality growth names like Microsoft. Azure continues double digit cloud growth and Copilot AI monetization is just beginning to appear in revenue. Seasonality: May seasonality for MSFT is mixed on a raw basis but the current AI investment cycle overrides the seasonal average. Q2 earnings window has historically been favorable, with MSFT posting gains in roughly 7 of the last 10 years during this period. Risk Management: Stop at $390 below the swing low. Daily close below $415 is an early warning. Daily close below $390 invalidates the setup. Scale out at each TP to lock in profits progressively. Not financial advice. Always manage your own risk.

Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT is set to report earnings this week at a time when the "Magnificent Seven" stock is down by double digits in percentage terms year to date. Let's see what its chart and fundamentals are saying. Microsoft's Fundamental Analysis While MSFT has rallied along with the broader market so far in April, 2025's second half wasn't kind to Microsoft bulls -- and 2026 hasn't been so far, either. As I write this, the tech giant's stock is down some 12% year to date vs. a 4% gain for the S&P 500. The red ink comes as the firm prepares to report fiscal Q3 results after the bell on Wednesday, with the Street looking for $4.07 in adjusted earnings per share on $81.4 billion of revenue. Numbers like that would represent a 17.6% increase from the $3.46 in adjusted EPS that MSFT posted in the year-ago period, as well as more than 16% of year-over-year revenue growth. If those forecasts prove accurate, the numbers would represent Microsoft's fourth consecutive quarter of 16% or better y/y revenue gains since the firm exited an early 2025 sales-growth slump. All in, 23 of the 29 sell-side analysts that I know of to track MSFT have revised their earnings estimates higher since the quarter began, while the remaining six have reduced their estimates. Microsoft's Technical Analysis So, is it time to re-engage with MSFT? Let's go to its chart, running back some 12 months through last Wednesday afternoon (April 22): Readers will first note that Microsoft saw a double-top pattern of bearish reversal this past summer and autumn, as marked by two red boxes at the chart's left and center. As would be expected with this pattern, the stock sold off beginning around November. Since then, MSFTs appear to be in the process of developing a cup pattern with a $484 indicated pivot point, as marked with a black curving line at the chart's right. This is a bullish technical sign. Should the cup pattern evolve into a cup-with-handle one, Microsoft's indicated pivot point would shift from the cup's left-side apex ($484 in the chart above) to its right-side one (about $431). (By way of reference, MSFT closed Monday at $424.82.) Meanwhile, Microsoft recently reclaimed its 21-day Exponential Moving Average, or "EMA," marked with a green line. It also recently retook its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a blue line). Crossing those lines generally compels both swing traders and portfolio managers to increase their long-side exposure. Microsoft also recently enjoyed a so-called "swing trader's golden cross," where the green line crossed above the blue line at a time when the blue line was rising. That's a bullish technical signal. However, the stock has also faced a spate of resistance (which could develop into a handle) at a precise 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the stock's October-through-March beat-down. That's intriguing. Looking at the chart's other technical indicators, Microsoft's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the top) is now quite robust, straddling the line between being technically overbought and just flirting with that level. Meanwhile, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with blue bars, a black line and a gold one at the chart's bottom) is almost as bullish-looking as it can get. The histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars), the 12-day EMA (the black line) and the 26-day EMA (the gold line) are all running above the zero-bound -- with the black line well above the gold line. Those are all short- to medium-term bullish signals. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in MSFT at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.

The stock is exiting a bearish structure after a deep correction and is building a base for further growth. Price is holding above key levels and reclaiming moving averages, indicating a shift in control toward buyers. The trading plan is to consider long positions in the 420-410 zone with a possible pullback toward 400. The scenario becomes invalid below 380. Upside targets are located around 478 and 537. From a technical perspective, the asset is forming a higher low after a strong recovery impulse. Price remains above short and medium term moving averages, while the current consolidation appears to be accumulation before the next move higher. Fundamentally, the company remains one of the key beneficiaries of growth in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. Strong demand for cloud services and continued AI integration support revenue growth expectations. Solid financial performance and a dominant market position provide a foundation for a long term bullish trend. As long as the current structure holds, the bullish scenario remains in focus.

We see growth and we buy the future Microsoft is ivesting big maybe it pays off

NASDAQ:MSFT had a great rally straight back to the daily 200EMA, where wave 1 appears complete, and price is likely to be rejected on the first test as resistance. Wave (2) has a target of the HVN at $387, just above the daily pivot. Until the daily 200EMA is overcome, the bears are still in control. The structure remains bearish with no higher highs or higher lows yet. 📈 Daily RSI is showing hidden bearish divergence in overbought, so a rejection here is highly likely. 👉Analysis is invalidated if price falls below wave (II) $345, keeping the bear trend alive Safe trading