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jacesabr_real
Bulls Cornered at Vanguard - Bears Prime for Attack
📌 To see my confluences and/or linework: Step 1: Grab chart 📊, Step 2: Unhide Group 1 in object tree 🌲, Step 3: Hide and unhide specific confluences one by one ✨. Also, double-click the screen to show RSI, MFI, CVD, and OBV indicators alongside divergence markings! 🎯 ⚔️ The Market Participant Battle: The proven sellers at point 2 have successfully defended their territory, trapping aggressive bulls who attempted a breakout. With price returning to this battleground at point 4, these sellers have reasserted dominance, closing below critical volume supports. Bears have cornered bulls at the upper VWAP deviation, setting up a return move targeting the $640-650 zone where trapped longs will liquidate. 🔍 Confluences: Confluence 1: Volume Profile Rejection & VWAP Resistance The rejection from the value area low-high zone represents a critical failure for bulls. Price closed below the volume area low of the major 1->3 swing, confirming sellers' control. The VWAP from point 1 shows point 4 rejecting precisely at the 1st standard deviation ($704.90), a textbook reversal signal. The anchored volume profile reveals the current candle closing below the developing POC, suggesting further downside acceleration. Confluence 2: Triple Bearish Divergence Complex RSI, MFI, and CVD all display synchronized bearish divergences at point 4. The RSI sits at 34.58, already in oversold territory but with room to fall further. MFI at 29.82 confirms money flow exhaustion. Most critically, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) shows declining buyer participation despite price attempts higher - institutional distribution in action. Confluence 3: Trend Line Break & Downtrend Confirmation The TLPv27.1 indicator shows a strong downtrend reading of 706.82 with 2.77% distance to target. The green uptrend line has been decisively broken, with price now below both the 50-bar (showing -27 downtrend) and 100-bar (showing -19 downtrend) trend readings. The 200-bar remains sideways, suggesting this is still an intermediate correction within a larger range. 📰 Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: INTU technical indicators show a Strong Sell position with 0 buy signals and 8 sell signals, RSI at 30.704 suggesting oversold conditions - Recent News/Earnings: Q4 2025 revenue grew 20% but fiscal 2026 guidance of 12-13% growth disappointed versus 16% in fiscal 2025 - Analyst Sentiment: Despite 18 buy ratings, recent price target cuts from Stifel ($800), JPMorgan ($750) reflect growing caution - Mailchimp Weakness: Mailchimp revenue declined in Q4, with CFO calling it a "near-term drag" due to platform complexity hurting retention - Interest Rate Impact: Fed cut rates by 0.25% with two more cuts expected in 2025, historically benefiting growth stocks but INTU hasn't responded positively 💡 Layman's Summary: Think of INTU like a high-flying restaurant that just disappointed investors. While they served 20% more meals last quarter (great!), they warned next year they'll only grow by 12-13% (not so great). Their newly acquired food delivery service (Mailchimp) is losing customers because the app is too complicated. Even though interest rates are dropping (usually good for tech stocks), investors are selling first and asking questions later. The stock has fallen from $813 to current levels and technical signals scream "danger ahead." 🤖 Machine Derived Information: - Image 1: 4-hour chart showing points 1-4 pattern with Bollinger Bands - Significance: Clear rejection from upper band at point 4, confirming resistance - AGREES ✔ - Image 2: 4-hour chart with trend strength indicators - Significance: Downtrend confirmed across multiple timeframes, strong bearish momentum - AGREES ✔ - Image 3: 4-hour chart with volume indicators - Significance: RSI/MFI/CVD triple divergence pattern, institutional distribution evident - AGREES ✔ 🎯 Actionable Machine Summary: All three charts confirm the bearish setup. The volume profile rejection combined with VWAP resistance creates a high-probability short entry. The triple divergence on momentum indicators suggests exhausted buying pressure. Trend indicators unanimously point lower. Risk/reward favors shorts with stop above $710 and targets at $680 (first) and $650 (final). 📊 Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS ✅ Confidence: High The confluence of technical rejection at proven resistance, bearish divergences across multiple indicators, disappointing forward guidance, and Mailchimp headwinds creates an compelling short setup. While INTU remains a quality company long-term, the near-term technical and fundamental picture strongly favors the bears. The 1->4 pattern completion at VWAP resistance with volume confirmation provides an excellent risk/reward short entry.
2:45 PM · Sep 30, 2025
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DeLeBlanc
Trend Score Daily Review (9-5-25) $UNH $BX $HD
Here are 10 stocks found in the trend score HTR raw data pine screener as confirmed bullish on Sep 5th 2025. BX CDW HD INTU LEN MTCH NCLH SWK UNH WSM Market Review: BX, CDW, HD, INTU, LEN, MTCH, NCLH, SWK, UNH, WSM These ten companies represent a cross-section of the U.S. economy, spanning finance, technology, home improvement, consumer goods, healthcare, travel, and housing. They are all mid-to-large cap U.S. equities, most of which are components of the S&P 500. Together, they provide a pulse on key sectors influencing the broader market. ⸻ Shared Themes 1. Economic Sensitivity: Most of these companies are tied to consumer confidence and discretionary spending. Home improvement (HD, WSM), housing (LEN), travel (NCLH), and dating apps (MTCH) tend to rise when consumers are optimistic and pull back during downturns. 2. Interest Rate Impact: Rising interest rates weigh on housing (LEN), discretionary retail (WSM), and leverage-driven businesses like BX. A rate-cutting cycle would provide a significant boost to these sectors. 3. Seasonal Trends: Companies like HD and WSM see strong Q4 holiday-driven revenue, while NCLH benefits from travel peaks in spring and summer. BX and UNH are more stable, less seasonal, and driven by structural demand. ⸻ Performance & Predictions UnitedHealth Group (UNH) – Healthcare • Recent Movement: UNH has experienced a steep decline, falling nearly 50% from mid-year highs due to rising healthcare costs and regulatory headwinds. • Opportunity: Valuation has reset to attractive levels, and its diversified model through Optum positions it well for long-term growth. Once cost pressures stabilize, recovery potential is significant. • Prediction: Likely to rebound over the next 12–18 months as healthcare demand remains resilient and valuation attracts institutional buyers. ⸻ Blackstone (BX) – Alternative Investments • Recent Movement: BX has been consolidating near highs after strong gains earlier this year, reflecting investor interest in private equity and real estate despite macro uncertainty. • Opportunity: With rate cuts on the horizon, BX could see deal-making and fundraising accelerate, boosting future earnings. • Prediction: Moderate upside as capital markets loosen, making it a solid medium-term hold. ⸻ Home Depot (HD) – Consumer Discretionary / Housing • Recent Movement: HD has been stable, supported by continued demand for home maintenance and upgrades, even as the housing market softens. • Opportunity: A potential Fed rate cut cycle would revive housing activity and support HD’s growth. • Prediction: Slow and steady performance with defensive characteristics, especially in a soft-landing economy. ⸻ Other Notable Names • CDW (Tech Services): Benefiting from digital transformation trends, but growth may slow if corporate budgets tighten. • LEN (Homebuilder): Highly sensitive to mortgage rates; could surge in a rate-cut environment. • MTCH (Online Dating): Competitive pressures and slowing user growth limit upside near-term. • NCLH (Cruises): Recovery play but exposed to consumer spending volatility. • SWK (Tools): Struggling with margin pressure and lower construction demand. • WSM (Retail): Strong brand but discretionary spending pullbacks weigh on growth. ⸻ Top 3 Long-Term Picks 1. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Deep value and strong recovery potential as healthcare remains a necessity-driven sector. 2. Blackstone (BX) Positioned to benefit from a future rate-cut cycle and rising demand for alternative assets. 3. Home Depot (HD) A defensive yet growth-oriented play that captures both stable home improvement demand and cyclical upside from housing recovery. ⸻ Final View The current environment favors companies with structural demand, diversified revenue streams, and strong balance sheets. • UNH offers a high-upside recovery story, • BX provides exposure to institutional capital flows, and • HD delivers steady performance with long-term housing tailwinds. These three stand out as the most resilient and attractive investments for long-term growth.
4:24 PM · Sep 6, 2025
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TopChartPatterns
INTUIT: Strategic Opportunity After Multi-Year Resistance BreaK
INTUIT: A Strategic Opportunity After Multi-Year Resistance Break First Impressions: Standing at a Critical Decision Point Looking at these Intuit chart, I get that familiar feeling every investor knows, am I looking at opportunity or danger? After years of testing a massive resistance zone around $700-750, INTU finally broke through to new all-time highs earlier this year. But now, like many growth stocks in this AI-driven market, it's pulled back to test that same resistance level that held it captive for years. This is the kind of moment that separates patient investors from those who chase momentum. The stock has dropped about 15% from its recent highs around $790, and my gut reaction? This looks like a textbook retest of broken resistance turning into support, exactly what Chart Patterns teaches us to watch for. Pattern Recognition: The Power of Multi-Year Resistance Breakouts What immediately catches my eye is the multi-year resistance zone highlighted in white on the first chart. This isn't just any resistance level, it's been tested multiple times over several years , making it incredibly significant . When such major resistance finally breaks, the psychology shifts dramatically. The pattern here follows a classic sequence: Years of consolidation below the $700-750 resistance Clean breakout to new highs around $790 Pullback to retest the broken resistance as new support Strong buying interest emerging right at the support level (notice that green hammer candle!!). This kind of candle is what you must be looking for in this job. This reminds me of a castle wall that finally gets breache, once you're through, that same wall becomes your fortress wall protecting you from attacks. The statistics support this view, resistance-turned-support levels have high reliability when they hold on retests. And furthermore, you can do a large profit by risking a bit, in this case you could earn a 20% by risking a 4%. If we look the historical chart, it provides even more context with its long-term ascending trendline spanning over a decade. This shows Intuit's incredible 22% annualized return track record, which aligns perfectly with the company's fundamental strengths in financial software and recent AI innovations. Analyst & Fundamental Context: The Numbers Tell a Bullish Story This is where the Chart Patterns setup gets even more compelling . Wall Street analysts are remarkably bullish on INTU, with a consensus "Buy" rating and an average price target of $797-835. That's roughly 20-25% upside from current levels around $662. Yes, that's exactly what technical analysis is telling us. A 20% bull run is more than posible here. The fundamental backdrop couldn't be stronger: Q2 2025 earnings crushed expectations with EPS of $3.32 vs. $2.58 expected Revenue grew 17% year-over-year to $4 billion Global Business Solutions segment up 19%, driven by AI-powered QuickBooks innovations Credit Karma revenue surged 36% What's fascinating is how the technical pullback contradicts the fundamental strength, classic market behavior where short-term fear creates long-term opportunity. The company is executing flawlessly on its AI strategy with "Intuit Assist," yet the stock trades like there's fundamental weakness. Investment Idea: A High-Probability Risk/Reward Setup The Idea Setup: Entry: Buy at market open around current levels ($662-665) Stop Loss: Just below the support hammer candle at approximately $635 (4% risk). This is a very tight Stop Loss, but should be enough. If the price falls below the minimum price done Friday, I would prefer to invest in another stock. Target: 20% return to $795-800 zone (no need to see new all time highs) Risk/Reward Ratio: 5:1 (exceptional) The Psychology Behind This Trade: Think of this like buying a house in a great neighborhood that just got rezoned for higher value. The multi-year resistance breakout "rezoned" INTU to a higher valuation tier. Now we're getting a chance to buy at the old ceiling, which has become the new floor. The green hammer candle that formed right at support tells a powerful story, institutional buyers stepped in aggressively the moment price touched this critical level. This suggests smart money recognizes the value at these levels. Risk Management Strategy: With only 4% downside risk to our stop loss, this setup offers asymmetric risk/reward. If the support fails, INTU would likely enter a more complex sideways range, but the long-term uptrend remains intact with that ascending trendline providing ultimate support. Remember, I'm trading to win in the upcoming weeks, not for the long run. Timeline Expectations: I expect this trade to play out over 2-6 weeks. We don't need new highs to make excellent money, just a return to the $795-800 consolidation zone where the stock can build a platform for its next move higher. The 20% target represents the distance back to where institutional resistance likely turns into support. This is the kind of setup where patience meets opportunity. The market has given us a gift, the chance to buy a fundamentally strong, AI-powered growth story at a technical support level that has years of significance behind it. Sometimes the best investments are the ones that feel slightly uncomfortable in the moment but make perfect sense when you look at the bigger picture.
4:39 PM · Aug 24, 2025
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