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CRM LONG TO $510 - CALL HAS LEGS, THE NUMBERS JIVE, READ ON!
Salesforce (CRM) stands out in the market with strong premium valuations justified by robust financial performance, innovative AI-driven products, and disciplined capital management, all pointing toward a bullish but measured long-term outlook. First, key valuation ratios reveal Salesforce’s high market premium versus industry averages. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is about 33 (TTM), with fiscal year P/E near 47, significantly above the industry average of around 22. Price to sales (TTM) is roughly 5.8, versus 1.5 for peers, reflecting strong revenue fundamentals and growth expectations. Price to tangible book is notably high near 37, highlighting investor confidence in intangible assets like proprietary AI and data platforms. Return on equity sits above 11%, further underscoring solid profitability. Free cash flow per share stands at about $11.30, deeply supporting operations, buybacks, and dividends. Monthly share volatility remains elevated at roughly 19%, well above industry norms, suggesting active trading interest and sensitivity to growth news. Salesforce’s balance sheet shows healthy liquidity with a current ratio near 1.12 and modest debt/equity around 14%, indicating capital flexibility and disciplined leverage management. Recent quarterly results and corporate disclosures strongly validate this valuation. For the first half of fiscal 2026, Salesforce reported $20.1 billion in revenue (+9% YoY), with double-digit subscription and support revenue growth driven by key cloud offerings. Operating margins are expanding steadily, exceeding 34% non-GAAP in the latest quarter. The company forecasts nearly $15 billion in operating cash flow, underpinning continued shareholder returns, including a newly authorized $20 billion share repurchase program. Salesforce’s transformative AI platform, Agentforce, alongside its Data Cloud revenue line, is a pivotal growth driver. Agentforce bookings surged over 120% year-over-year, with over 6,000 paid deals and rapid adoption by major clients such as FedEx, DirecTV, Amgen, and Under Armour. Forward-looking statements highlighted a vision of "agentic enterprises," integrating AI-powered agents that augment human workflows across sales, customer service, and operational functions. This innovation wave positions Salesforce as a clear leader in AI-native SaaS, accustomed to evolving customer needs with scalability and operational efficiency. Earnings call transcripts emphasize management's excitement around AI’s role in extending, not replacing, the SaaS model. They note a 60% increase in pilot-to-production conversion rates for AI-powered solutions, growing pipeline strength from big deals over $1 million (+26% bookings YoY), and broad geographic expansion despite pockets of constraints (UK, Japan). The company is also prioritizing profitable growth and high-margin product innovation while closely managing capital allocation with disciplined M&A focused on AI-related acquisitions. The stock currently trades near $245 (October 2025), carrying a premium P/E over 35. This premium is supported by continuing strong revenue growth guidance (about 8.5-9% YoY for FY2026), operating margin expansion, and significant free cash flow growth (expected 12-13%). Salesforce’s sizable remaining performance obligations of $59.9 billion (CRPO) imply a solid deferred revenue base to fuel future growth. To summarize: Salesforce’s valuation ratios reflect its leadership in the enterprise software and AI SaaS market, backed by consistent execution, strong subscription revenue streams, growth in AI-driven products, and disciplined capital returns. The premium multiple is justified by ongoing innovation and operational excellence, with the risk profile balanced by strong cash flow and customer retention. Investors should monitor AI adoption rates, margin trends, and competitive dynamics, but current fundamentals and strategic directions point to sustainable long-term value creation. This rich synthesis integrates raw ratio data, quarterly performance specifics, and qualitative insights from earnings management commentary to present a comprehensive valuation and growth outlook narrative. Salesforce's intrinsic value computed through traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models and normalized Free Cash Flow valuation methods generally indicate a fair value range between approximately $320 and $410 per share as of mid-2025. For example, GuruFocus reports an intrinsic DCF-based value near $407, while other analyses range from about $316 to $327. These models rely on assumptions including a high growth stage (capped at 20% annually), a discount rate of around 11%, and terminal growth near 4%, reflecting Salesforce's strong historical free cash flow growth (~24% average) and durable profitability. However, a forecast valuation exceeding $510 per share suggests a more bullish scenario, which could be justified if Salesforce: Continues accelerating revenue growth beyond consensus, Achieves sustained and expanding operating margins above 34%, Successfully monetizes its AI-driven Agentforce and Data Cloud platforms at scale, surpassing current bookings momentum, Executes capital allocation optimally, amplifying shareholder value through buybacks and strategic acquisitions, Maintains and grows its wide competitive moat in SaaS and AI-enabled enterprise software longer than typical market expectations. While current consensus intrinsic value models provide a strong baseline, such elevated price targets imply that the market should expect Salesforce to become a dominant AI-SaaS platform with enterprise transformation impact driving exceptional free cash flow and earnings growth over the next decade. This is a reasonable long-term outlook given Salesforce’s demonstrated leadership in cloud and AI innovation combined with consistent execution, but it is critical to monitor key risks including competition, macroeconomic conditions, and integration execution, which could impact growth or margins. In summary, intrinsic valuation models range from $316 to $410 under mainstream assumptions, supporting a bullish forecast over $510 if Salesforce sustains accelerated growth and margin expansion. This higher target assumes a premium multiple justified by AI-driven transformation and exceptional financial results ahead.
8:56 PM · Oct 17, 2025
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ActivTrades
Salesforce Reinvents Itself with AI and Projects Over $60B
Salesforce Reinvents Itself with AI and Projects Over $60B by 2030 By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) has staged a true comeback in 2025, following the announcement of its ambitious forecast to surpass $60 billion in revenue by 2030. The global leader in CRM software has doubled down on artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced analytics, positioning itself as one of the most resilient technological pillars in the U.S. market. Informatica and the Shift Toward Smart Data One of the most talked-about moves of the year was Salesforce’s $8 billion acquisition of Informatica — a strategic operation that strengthens its data integration and management business. This acquisition will enable the company to merge its CRM ecosystem with advanced analytics and generative AI tools, creating more efficient integration across enterprise cloud solutions. AI Serving Business Needs Salesforce has signed key partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic to enhance the capabilities of its Einstein AI platform. The goal is to provide companies with smarter tools to automate processes, personalize customer service, and improve decision-making. In addition, the company has announced a $15 billion investment in San Francisco aimed at expanding its AI infrastructure and technology development centers, reinforcing its role as a major innovation engine on the West Coast. Share Buyback and Confidence in the Future The $7 billion share buyback plan approved by the board reflects Salesforce’s confidence in its long-term outlook. The measure seeks to optimize shareholder value and stabilize the stock after a year of significant volatility in the tech sector. Technical Outlook: Consolidation with a Bullish Bias Salesforce shares closed yesterday at $240, following a steady recovery from August lows of $226. On the technical side, the stock maintains a solid sideways trend, with support at $233.60 and a current point of control (POC) near $244. Resistance was tested yesterday at $257.55; if that level is broken in the coming sessions, we could see a move toward the $273.52 zone, last seen in July. The RSI remains around 52.22%, indicating neutrality, while the MACD is positioned below a positive histogram. The bearish moving average crossover initiated in late May remains in place, although the current price holds above the 100-day average, suggesting that bullish pressure could increase in the coming sessions. According to the ActivTrades US Market Pulse indicator, an extreme risk-on environment has dominated U.S. markets throughout the week — reflected in the strong appetite for tech stocks like Salesforce, driven by confidence in AI and the sector’s expansion. Leader of the Future Salesforce has shown that its reinvention goes far beyond AI rhetoric: it combines corporate strategy, technological innovation, and investor confidence within an extreme risk-on backdrop on Wall Street. With key acquisitions, strategic alliances, and a solid financial foundation, the company is not only positioning itself to lead the next era of enterprise software but also to become one of the driving forces behind U.S. technological growth heading into 2030. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
8:44 AM · Oct 17, 2025
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VROCKSTAR
9/22/25 - $crm - worth a closer look?
9/22/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:CRM worth a closer look? - seems like the market wants the mega caps and the micro memes, but nothing in between - that's what brought me back to NYSE:FI in the last few days (it's about a 20% position or 8% leveraged 2.5-1 on a series of jan '28 ITM leaps) - now i'm looking at CRM and saying, let's have a look - anything that's doing >6% fcf (this is even closer to 6.5%) and growing MSD nevermind HSD like this one should get another look - i get the sense fund mgrs r being "forced" to index toward higher mcap factor and ignore these, despite what actives would prefer - and you get a really nice setup potentially into YE where one of two things happens (let's use $fi/ NYSE:CRM as similar types - $100 bn one $230 bn other). a. mkt continues to bleed/ eschew these to chase mag7 performance and in which case you get an easy '26 play esp at end of year into 1H26 as rotation out of megas will inevitably mean they perform weaker and you get a reverse of this momentum b. these caps actually get a bid - which is my suspicion - as you get highly liquid mega caps that might drip 5-10% at most (we'll get a few bumps along the road - and the longer we go without these... the higher these "alts" that r 100-300bn will run) and if we do take a sneeze, we'll get a nice dip buy entry again, for YE play. - i do think all roads lead higher here - and while "AI" might be an issue, sure - for names like NYSE:FI and NYSE:CRM , these co's have serious initiatives that r already showing fruit and i think dominant platforms w HSD momentum in a weak macro (ex-B2B pure-AI) is pretty high quality and gives u booster re-ratings when we do eventually get more substantial cuts. remember - these cuts won't help NVDA as much as they help customers for $fi... $crm... types. and that's where you go from 8-9% growth for both of these toward 15+% and they'll re-rate toward 4-5% fcf yield and stock will be 50% higher. V
8:10 PM · Sep 22, 2025
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