Caterpillar has been in a steady uptrend, and some traders may see potential for continued upside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the rally to new highs after earnings beat estimates on January 29. Second, the industrial giant stalled in late February and slid in early March. That produced a falling trendline which prices broke this week. Third, Tuesday’s session saw a lower low versus Monday and a higher high. That kind of outside candle is a potentially bullish pattern. Next, a higher weekly low may suggest the presence of buyers. Finally, CAT is holding its rising 50-day simple moving average. It’s also back above the 21-day exponential moving average. Those signals may reflect bullishness in the intermediate and short terms. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. Learn more here about TradingView’s Broker of the Year! Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.

Current Price: 693.99 (Analysis was generated on Monday Morning) Direction: SHORT Confidence level: 58%(Several professional traders highlight risk-off conditions, rising volatility, and dead cat bounce behavior across equities and commodities, which historically pressures cyclical names like Caterpillar. Limited CAT-specific bullish conviction keeps confidence moderate.) Targets Target 1: 675 Target 2: 655 Stop Levels Stop 1: 710 Stop 2: 725 Key Insights: Here’s what’s driving this setup. Several professional traders are openly cautious on the broader market, highlighting rising VIX expectations, weak breadth readings, and wave structures that still point lower. CAT, as a capital‑intensive cyclical tied to construction, mining, and energy capex, rarely swims against that tide for long. Even when oversold bounces appear, traders repeatedly frame them as temporary relief rather than trend reversals. What really stands out is the repeated use of the phrase “dead cat bounce” across different asset classes. Traders applied it to equities, oil, and commodities. That’s important because CAT sits right at the intersection of all three. If oil and industrial metals fail to hold recent rebounds, capital spending expectations usually compress quickly, and CAT tends to reprice lower in sympathy. Recent Performance: CAT has held up better than many cyclicals, trading near the upper end of its recent range around the $690–$700 zone. That relative strength is exactly why traders are cautious here. When the broader market weakens, leaders often become sources of liquidity. The stock hasn’t broken down yet, but it’s stalling while volatility pressure builds underneath the surface. Expert Analysis: Several professional traders I’m tracking emphasized that oversold conditions can produce sharp bounces, but they don’t see confirmation of a durable bottom. Breadth indicators and macro structure still suggest unfinished downside. In that context, CAT looks more like a short‑term sell into strength than a fresh long. The lack of CAT‑specific bullish price targets from traders reinforces that this isn’t where conviction sits right now. News Impact: There’s no major Caterpillar‑specific news changing the picture this week. Instead, macro news dominates: geopolitical risk, commodity volatility, and tightening financial conditions. That kind of news flow usually hurts confidence in heavy equipment demand, especially when traders already expect slowing global growth. Trading Recommendation: Putting it all together, I’m taking a SHORT stance on Caterpillar for this week. The trade thesis is simple: strong stock, weak environment. I’m targeting a pullback toward $675 first, with $655 as a stretch if risk‑off accelerates. I’d respect the trade if CAT reclaims strength above $710–$725, because that would signal the market is ignoring macro stress — but right now, the balance of trader wisdom says caution.

Caterpillar shows a Regime Shift Structure on the long-term chart. For decades the stock followed a largely cyclical pattern, reflecting the nature of global industrial demand and capital expenditure cycles. Major expansions were typically followed by extended corrective phases as economic conditions evolved. A structural transition emerged around 2016–2017, when price broke above the upper boundary of the long-standing cyclical range. This breakout signalled a shift into a new structural expansion regime. Since that period, price behaviour has been characterised by a strong impulsive advance, suggesting that the market has moved into a higher structural regime relative to earlier cycles. This analysis is part of the ongoing S&P 500 Structural Census, a project documenting long-term structural behaviour across major equities. Disclaimer This study focuses on structural observation and is not intended as financial advice. #SP500Census #MarketStructure #StructuralAnalysis #Caterpillar #CAT

Team, We are not buying now. Price is still trading below major descending resistance (R). As long as we are below R, the structure remains under pressure. ✅ What We Are Waiting For We only buy if: Price breaks above the descending resistance (R) A candle closes clearly above it We see strength (no immediate rejection wick) Ideally: a small pullback that holds above R No breakout = no trade. 🟢 Entry Plan (After Confirmation) Once price: Breaks above R Retests and holds

Jim Cramer on Caterpillar (CAT): A Call to Bring Back the Individual Investor as the Stock Rides the AI Infrastructure Wave Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT), the iconic American manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, has become one of the most closely watched stocks on the market, and it recently found itself in the spotlight of famed investor Jim Cramer. With the stock posting eye-popping gains—up 124% over the past year and another 28% year-to-date in 2026—Cramer's remarks have added a layer of cultural and retail-investor-focused commentary to a story already rich with institutional interest and fundamental shifts . Cramer's message was direct and, for some, surprising given the stock's meteoric rise. He urged the company's leadership to focus on re-engaging the everyday investor, stating, "I want to say to people, like the CEO of Caterpillar, it is time, you've got to go back to what used to happen, to get the individual investor in your stock. There's no way that Caterpillar, a great American company, should have its stock at 749." His sentiment suggests that despite the stock's impressive ascent to around the $750 level, he believes there is both a disconnect and an opportunity: the company's value proposition and narrative may not be fully resonating with the retail audience that once formed the bedrock of its shareholder base . The New Engine: AI Data Centers and the Power & Energy Unit To understand why Cramer is talking about Caterpillar, and why the stock is at these levels, one must look beyond the traditional cycles of housing starts and mining capex. The company is in the midst of a profound transformation in how the market perceives it, driven overwhelmingly by demand from an unexpected source: artificial intelligence (AI). The surge in CAT stock is largely attributed to the exploding need for reliable, on-site power to fuel the nation's rapidly expanding network of AI data centers . As utilities struggle with interconnection queues and the need for massive grid upgrades, data center developers are increasingly turning to on-site power generation. This is where Caterpillar has stepped into the spotlight. Its Power & Energy unit, which produces industrial natural-gas generators and turbines, has become the company's standout performer . In the fourth quarter of 2025, this segment posted a staggering 23% growth, reaching $9.4 billion in sales, and has effectively become Caterpillar's largest revenue contributor . This strength helped drive record full-year revenue of $67.6 billion and build a record backlog of $51 billion, signaling that demand—particularly for power solutions—is not just strong, but accelerating . Wall Street Takes Notice: BofA's Bullish Upgrade This fundamental shift has not gone unnoticed by institutional analysts. Bank of America recently provided a powerful endorsement, raising its price target on Caterpillar to $825 from $735 and maintaining a Buy rating . The BofA analysts specifically pointed to the demand for Caterpillar's turbines from sectors outside of data centers as well, using this diversification to argue that fears of excess or "frothy" demand in the AI power space may be unwarranted. They see a durable, multi-year cycle for power generation that supports a re-rating of the entire company . However, the analyst community is not monolithic in its optimism. While BofA's $825 target represents the high end of the spectrum, other firms have struck a more cautious tone. Bernstein recently maintained a Hold rating with a $678 price target, and there has been notable insider selling, including a recent transaction by Group President Rodney Shurman, which can sometimes give momentum-focused investors pause . The wide range of price targets—from a low of $425 from Morgan Stanley to BofA's $825—underscores the intense debate on Wall Street about how much of the AI-powered growth is already priced into the stock . Financial Strength and Lingering Risks Underpinning the bull case is Caterpillar's robust financial performance. The company generated a staggering $9.5 billion in free cash flow in 2025, allowing it to return $7.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks . This financial discipline provides a solid floor for the investment thesis. Yet, significant risks remain. The company faced $1.7 billion in tariff-related headwinds in 2025 and expects those costs to increase by another $800 million in 2026, which could pressure margins . Furthermore, while the Power & Energy segment booms, other areas like Resource Industries have shown weakness due to lower coal prices affecting mining sales . The Verdict: A Stock at a Crossroads For investors considering Cramer's implicit question—should you buy Caterpillar here?—the answer is nuanced. The company has successfully pivoted its narrative from a cyclical industrial play to a critical enabler of the AI revolution. The record backlog and the surge in the Power & Energy unit provide tangible evidence that this is more than just hype . The stock's 270% total return over five years and its consistent outperformance of the broader industrials sector validate that the strategy is working . However, with a forward P/E hovering around 33, the stock is undeniably priced for perfection . The risk lies in whether the AI data center buildout can sustain its torrid pace and whether Caterpillar can navigate tariff pressures and potential slowdowns in its legacy businesses . For the long-term investor who believes in the secular trend of AI infrastructure buildout, Caterpillar offers a rare combination of deep industrial roots and high-tech growth exposure. For the trader looking at the 28% year-to-date gain, the question Cramer poses is whether the individual investor—who has largely been on the sidelines—will now be the marginal buyer to push the stock past the $800 mark and beyond

CAT follow up part 2 Here is the CAT on the weekly chart. This is what I expect on the retrace. The target is where there are 3 factors: the 50% fib retracement, the top of the upsloping parallel, and the daily gap fill at about 526. You can also use the EMA line for further confluence. There might be one more push up. The even number of 800 is interesting. The general market (S&P 500) will be a determining force.

CAT part 1 Look at CAT on the monthly chart. The red vertical lines show what happens when the red momentum red dot happens when above the 65 level line on momentum oscillator chart. To see it better, go to the weekly chart and zoom in on each vertical line to see the measurements. Also, please take note that on some there were minors losses before the gains. However, there was one that was about a 15% loss before the gain. This is when it is important to look for divergences on lower timeframes after reaching monthly levels and do dollar cost averaging for entries. These moves are important for getting an average move so that we can a target for the current move. With the figures below, we can expect an average move of 26%. In part 2 for this chart, we will use another chart to see confluence with other factor to see the target. 10/2/1972 14% 7/1/1976 19% 7/1/1981 49% 5/1/1986 32% 10/1/1987 44% 9/1/1993 5% 1/5/2004 15% 2/7/2005 9% 10/3/2005 14% 5/1/2006 27% 5/2/2011 39% 7/28/2014 43% 1/29/2018 29% 6/1/2021 34% 4/29/2024 9% 12/2/2024 32% Average = 26%

We are initiating a Buy on CAT (Caterpillar) using a trend-continuation swing strategy. The technical structure remains constructive: price is trading decisively above both the 50- and 200-period moving averages, while ADX (~33) signals a healthy directional trend rather than a weakening structure. Momentum readings across the hourly and daily timeframes remain supportive, and recent pullbacks have occurred on muted, non-distributive volume, suggesting consolidation rather than supply entering the market. Sentiment acts as a clear catalyst for the trade. Meaningful macro tailwind, reinforcing the bullish continuation thesis and increasing the probability of upside follow-through once consolidation resolves. Execution plan Entry zone: 774.2 – 779.3 Stop-loss: 710.23 Primary target: 934 Conservative resistance target: ~870 Risks to monitor Elevated daily RSI indicating potential short-term exhaustion Any rapid deterioration in sentiment or macro cyclicals narrative Order-flow transition from consolidation to clear distribution If sentiment weakens materially or order flow begins to show persistent supply/churn behavior, the setup will be reassessed.

This is a follow up to the monthly CAT chart. This shows a divergence forming on the 2 hour CAT chart. Watch the next high to see if the momentum oscillator is lower. Watch for break of structure or lower timeframe trend line.

Look at CAT on the monthly chart. Notice what happens when the momentum oscillator is above the 80 line. I have marked these with the red vertical lines. Further confirmation is on the weekly chart historically when 3 things happen: RSI over 72, Stochastic RSI over 90, Momentum oscillator over 80. Now look at the 2 hour chart (I can only show the 1 chart at a time on publishing). The 2 hour chart is showing bearish divergence. A correction is coming soon! Again, refer to the percentages of the corrections on the red vertical lines on the monthly chart. We can except a 25% move down, which would put the price back to the top of the shown parallel channel (pre-breakout area).