Traders,
In my latest BINANCE:LINKUSDT analysis I started my thesis with " I BELIEVE THE CRYPTO MARKET IS SETTING UP FOR A BIG, BIG, BIG DUMP! NOT JUST LINK! "
It wasn’t coincidence that I wrote those words in caps lock. The market was whispering louder than usual: not in price, but in data. Every metric pulsed in rhythm, like the heartbeat of a system about to release its tension. The numbers weren’t random; they were poetry in motion, quietly syncing toward one inevitable point. Sometimes, data doesn’t just inform — it sings. And when it does, your fingertips start typing before your mind even realizes what the melody means.
Now we’re back — same chart, same logic, but a different side of the market.
I’m going to analyze it the same way I did before — step by step, math-backed, structure-based, and logic-driven.
Only this time, it’s even more extensive.
For free. For nothing. So that you, the people who actually care to learn, can start to see how markets truly work. How they breathe, trap, rotate, rebalance — and how every candle hides intent.
I believe the BINANCE:LINKUSDT dump might be over — for now, at least — and that the market is slowly starting to build upward momentum. This post is not a quick “looks bullish” statement. It’s a structured walkthrough from mathematical foundation to market structure, liquidity, and order flow, showing why the $20–$21 region might become the next key target before a rotation lower.
Let’s go step by step.
Step 1 – Is There a Mathematical Reason to Say the Current Auction Might Be Finished?
By “auction,” I mean the move from a clear swing high to a clear swing low where sellers were in control. Markets move in auctions — from high to low, then pull back, then extend again. To determine whether a sell auction is finished, we measure how far it has retraced and extended.
After the 10 Oct liquidation event, price printed a clean new high — more valid than the liquidation spike. That’s point A (~20.15). From there, it sold off to point B (~15.70).
So our first auction is:
A → B | Direction: Down
Step 2 – Measuring the Retrace
Since the move was downward, I drew a Fibonacci retracement from A to B (high → low). nThat gives us retracement levels above price on TradingView.
Price retraced almost perfectly to the 0.786 level (~19.23) — not shallow (0.382 or 0.5), not extreme (0.886), but deep enough to classify as a “normal” yet decisive retrace.
That means sellers regained control after a 0.786 pullback, a key ratio in the Fibonacci family.
Step 3 – What Does a 0.786 Retrace Usually Lead To?
Here’s where the Fibonacci logic becomes meaningful. The 0.786 level is derived from the square root of the golden ratio inverse: √(1/φ). Its natural mirror on the other side of price is √(φ), or 1.272.
That’s why 0.786 retraces often project toward 1.272 extensions — the two are mathematically linked. Beyond that, the next probable extensions are 1.414 and 1.618.
So, for a 0.786 retrace, the Fibonacci extension ladder is:
Primary: 1.272
Intermediate: 1.414
Extended: 1.618
Step 4 – Did BINANCE:LINKUSDT Reach One of These Fibonacci Targets?
To check that, we reverse the Fibonacci — draw it from B to A (low → high). That prints the extension levels below the swing low.
Price hit the 1.414 extension almost perfectly before structure began shifting:
Lower lows stopped forming
Higher lows began to appear
Small higher highs emerged on lower timeframes
That’s a structural sign the sellers exhausted their leg — a textbook confirmation that the 1.414 zone completed the auction.
Step 5 – Confirming the Auction
The A → B auction retraced to 0.786, extended to 1.414, and then reversed in structure. This matches the Fibonacci expectation for a completed wave.
If the retrace had been 0.886 instead, we’d likely expect continuation to 1.618 — but since it was 0.786, the 1.414 tap followed by reversal fits perfectly.
✅ 0.786 retrace → 1.272 / 1.414 / 1.618 extension
✅ 1.414 tapped → structure reversed
We can reasonably call this auction finished.
Step 6 – Confluence from the Smaller ABC Swing
After the main leg, the market made a small rally and a lower high — point C. Using the Fibonacci Extension tool (A → B → C), we project this smaller swing.
Interestingly, the ABC projection lands exactly on the same 1.414 zone as the larger A → B measurement. That’s two independent Fibonacci constructions converging on the same price.
From a math perspective, this isn’t coincidence — both patterns use the same ratio family.
It’s proportion — the geometry folding back onto itself.
Nature’s Geometry on a Price Chart
This is where Fibonacci goes beyond numbers. The same proportions that define growth patterns in seashells, tree branches, sunflowers, hurricanes, and galaxies are present in the market’s structure.
Two distinct swings produce the same 1.414 target.That’s natural proportion — mathematical harmony showing up in price behaviour.
It’s not random. It’s geometry repeating itself.
Part 2 – The Structural Context: Liquidity and Value
We’ve identified our Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) using Fibonacci confluence. Now let’s look inside the structure and the market’s underlying “memory.”
We’ll answer three questions:
Where does liquidity sit — which levels might the market hunt next?
What is the order flow showing — is there absorption or continuation?
What do the next extensions project mathematically?
1. Liquidity via TPO (Market Profile)
TPO (Time Price Opportunity) shows how much time price spent at each level. Clusters = acceptance and value. Gaps = imbalance and rejection.
Around $19.00, during TPO periods G, H, N, and O, price built acceptance but didn’t explore higher. That created a weak high — a level that often acts as a magnet for future liquidity hunts.
Another, slightly weaker high sits near $20.00, which is still unfinished.
And as James Bond said, “I never leave loose ends.” Neither does the market.
2. Anchored VWAP Confluence
Anchoring VWAP from the major swing high shows the blue AVWAP aligning almost perfectly with that $20.00 region. That gives strong confluence between volume-weighted value, liquidity, and structure.
3. Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) and Imbalance
Using the Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) from A → B reveals clear low-volume zones — “air pockets” where price moved too fast to build volume.
Between $20.00 and $20.50, there’s a notable LVN, meaning price skipped over it during the selloff.Such zones often act as magnets — the market tends to revisit them to rebalance unfinished business.
Now we have three layers of confluence:
Weak high at $19.00–$20.00
Anchored VWAP aligning with $20.00
LVN pocket at $20.00–$20.50
That defines a clear liquidity and target zone.
Structure and Confluence Summary
PRZ established through Fibonacci symmetry
Structure showing higher lows and early accumulation
Confluence cluster between $20.00 and $20.50, combining:
Weak highs
Low-volume node
Anchored VWAP
Market Profile imbalance
The setup aligns across math, volume, and structure.
Part 4 – Order Flow: What Lies Beneath the Candles
From the outside, price action looks calm — clean candles, defined Fibonacci levels, and structure that seems perfectly balanced. But the real story is hidden underneath, inside the Order Flow.
Every candle represents a battle — between aggression and absorption, buyers and sellers, liquidity and imbalance. Understanding who is winning that battle tells us whether a move is genuine strength or a trap waiting to unwind.
Order Flow allows us to look beneath the surface and see where transactions are actually happening — where volume clusters, where buyers are absorbed, and where sellers are defending. It’s the market’s heartbeat.
The Current Picture
Here’s what we see right now on BINANCE:LINKUSDT :
CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) — across both spot and futures (stablecoin- and coin-margined contracts) — is making lower highs, showing persistent sell aggression.
Yet price itself is not breaking down. Instead, it’s holding steady and even forming higher lows.
Meanwhile, the A/D (Accumulation/Distribution) line is rising, indicating that despite heavy selling pressure, buyers continue to absorb and accumulate.
That means one thing:
aggressive sellers are being absorbed by large passive buyers quietly taking the other side.
Recognizing the Setup
Let’s break down the pattern:
CVD ↓ → sustained sell aggression
OI ↑ → new short positions entering the market
Price ↔ or ↑ slightly → absorption and accumulation taking place
When these three align:
It often signals a short trap forming.
Sellers feel in control because CVD shows selling dominance.
In reality, their aggression is being absorbed by larger passive buyers.
Once that liquidity runs out and buyers stop absorbing, shorts are trapped.
Those trapped shorts must cover — triggering a fast, aggressive short squeeze upward.
Also: CVD on Stablecoin Margined Contracts remains flat while Stablecoin Margined Open Interest rises — showing aggressive shorting being absorbed by larger buyers. Price stability suggests accumulation, not weakness. Since OI stays high, those shorts are still in the game, meaning their positions haven’t been closed yet. If price starts to move up, they’ll be forced to cover — setting up the conditions for a short squeeze.
Absorption in Context
Absorption isn’t random — it’s the footprint of strong hands quietly taking in sell pressure without letting price break down. While most see weakness, they’re actually witnessing controlled accumulation.
Here, price holds steady as CVD trends flat and OI stays high — meaning aggressive shorts are still in the game, being absorbed by larger buyers. Every new short adds fuel to the spring.
When that pressure releases, it doesn’t drift — it snaps. Shorts are forced to cover, triggering a sharp, emotional squeeze toward the next liquidity zone around $20–$20.50, where Fibonacci confluence and a weak high align.
This is where microstructure meets the macro picture — absorption building the base for a violent move higher.
Part 5 – Fibonacci Extension Confirmation
To justify the $20–$21 target mathematically, we apply one more Fibonacci extension —
from the last swing low to the recent high, projected forward.
The 1.618 extension aligns almost perfectly around $20.00, adding strong mathematical confluence to our previously defined liquidity and structure zone.
That makes $20.00–$20.50 a textbook target cluster — a Fibonacci, liquidity, and volume alignment.
Final Outlook – The Path Ahead
Based on all the combined data:
Fibonacci structure shows completion and new expansion potential
Market Profile and VWAP reveal unfinished business around $20–$20.50
Order Flow confirms absorption and hidden accumulation
The 1.618 Fibonacci projection reinforces this level as a natural mathematical destination
I believe the market will squeeze upward toward $20–$21, taking out the weak high and the LVN pocket — and once that liquidity is collected, rotate back down to restore balance.
The setup is mathematically justified, structurally valid, and order-flow supported — a complete picture of how Fibonacci geometry, structure, and liquidity align to reveal where the next phase of this auction may unfold.
If price slips lower instead, the key level to watch is $12.90 — the latest 1.618 extension from the initial wave we measured earlier. That remains the deep liquidity and structural boundary where balance could be restored.
If you enjoy this kind of analysis, leave a like and drop a comment. I don’t ask for anything — I just want to help more people learn to look behind the charts, to see the story that price and volume quietly write together.
Last words.
Everything we have mapped — Fibonacci structure, confluence, liquidity, and absorption — means nothing without the psychology behind it. The market is not just math and candles; it is a mirror of collective emotion. Every trapped short, every breakout chase, every hesitation is human behaviour written in numbers.
When confidence is at its peak, risk is usually greatest.
When fear dominates, opportunity hides in plain sight.
That is why sentiment often reaches its extreme just before reversals. Most traders only see what is already visible, not what is quietly building beneath the surface.
So next time you scroll through social media or read the news about what everyone expects, remind yourself of this:
When everyone sees the same breakout, the trade was over hours ago.
And the markets whisper long before they speak.
From the depths of the sands,
ThetaNomad