SYMBOL: BINANCE:ADAUSDT | DIRECTION: LONG 1st, then SHORT @ 50 | TIMEFRAME: 8-Day
Published: April 2026
Right. So. Cardano, that failed crypto experiment.
I want you to take a moment. Look at the chart. Really look at it. Notice the two large red arrows
showing 90% crashes. Notice that after the first 90% crash, the response from the Cardano
community was essentially “this is fine.” Notice that we are now, and I cannot stress this
enough, in the setup for another one? The chart is kind enough to label exactly where we are
in this sorry saga. Wave 4. That’s the bounce, a bull trap. The dead cat, dressed up in a blazer and presented to the public as a recovery. It is not a recovery. It is the market offering ADA holders one final, generous opportunity to exit, before wave 5 arrives and takes what little remains of their investment. An investment they were promised would lead to riches, instead, rags now seem expensive.
A number of things are happening on the above 8-day chart. You should probably pay
attention to them. You won’t. But here they are:
1) Elliott Wave structure. Wave 4 is a bounce, not a rescue. The count is annotated
on the chart. (1-2) up. (3-4) up again. (5) down. Wave 4 in a bearish impulse exists for a
single purpose: to give the remaining bulls sufficient hope to stay positioned before the
final leg removes them. The target for wave 4 is approximately 50 cents, the blue
horizontal resistance zone that has already rejected price on multiple prior occasions. If
you want to trade that bounce, fine. Entirely up to you. Just be very clear about what
comes after it.
2) Bear flag. It’s on the chart. In writing. A bear flag is what happens when a market
declines sharply, pauses to allow the optimists back in, and then resumes declining. The
continuation target of this particular bear flag sits at approximately 10 cents. I didn’t draw the flag. The market did. I’m just reading it out to you.
3) The prior 90% collapse. Nobody learned anything. Two are now shown on the chart
with red arrows and percentage labels, which is a level of transparency I can respect. The
first: a 90% collapse from the 2021 peak. The second: another 90% decline in the
subsequent cycle. After each, the community produced detailed and passionate
explanations for why the next move would be different. It wasn’t. The word “different” is
doing extraordinary structural work in this community and I think it’s time it was given a
rest.
4) The RSI is at the floor. I know what you’re thinking. “Oversold! Buy signal!” Right. It
was also oversold at $2.50. And at $1.50. And at $0.90. Oversold in a structural
downtrend is not an invitation to buy. It is a description of how many people have already
lost money on the way down. It is not asking for company.
Targets
1st target: $0.50, the wave 4 rejection level at horizontal resistance. The bounce. Brief.
Don’t get attached to it.
2nd target: $0.10, the wave 5 completion and the bear flag measured move.
What cancels the thesis?
A confirmed 8-day close above the bear flag resistance and the blue horizontal band invalidates
the setup. That would be genuinely impressive and I would acknowledge it fully. I would then
check whether I had left anything in the hat before handing it over. Instead wave 5 completion confirms a rather larger head and shoulder patterns instead.
A brief word on the fundamentals
Cardano has been promising to be the future of decentralised finance for approximately a
decade. It remains, by most measurable metrics, very much still promising. The academic rigour
of its peer-reviewed development process is cited frequently and enthusiastically as a
competitive advantage. The speed at which this rigour has failed to produce material real-world
adoption is cited considerably less frequently. I’m not saying it’s a bad project. I’m saying the
chart has now drawn two enormous red arrows on itself and written the word “oblivion” in the
middle. Let's face it, this projects is toast.
Is it possible ADA surprises everyone, breaks the bear flag upward, and renders this entire
analysis embarrassing? Yes.
Is it probable? Look at the chart. Read the blue text. Then decide.
Good luck. You’ll need it.
Ww
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Disclaimer :
This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading
cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.