US stocks / WFC
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Blueberry
US banks on shaky ground
Macro conditions are turning hostile. The commercial real estate market, especially office, is structurally impaired in certain segments. Vacancy rates in major US metros are above 20%. Office prices are down 30–40% from their 2022 peaks. With over $1.2 trillion in CRE debt maturing by 2027, refinancing risk is climbing, fast. Wells Fargo is sitting in the crosshairs. Its latest earnings showed net interest income down 13% year-on-year. Revenue fell 6%. The top line is weakening just as credit risk is rising. Commercial loan charge-offs surged to $923 million in 2023, up from just $152 million the year before. That’s a sixfold increase. Of that, the bulk came from office-related exposure. The bank has set aside more reserves, but at year-end 2023, its allowance for credit losses on commercial real estate was $1.9 billion, just 2.6% of its $72 billion CRE book. That ratio looks optimistic. Wells Fargo’s total book value of equity stands at around $170 billion. If CRE losses reach 5–7% of the commercial book, well within historical stress-case scenarios, that implies $3.5 to $5 billion in write-downs. That’s a 2–3% direct hit to equity. Not catastrophic, but meaningful when earnings are already trending lower. The risk isn’t just the loss itself, it’s the market response. Investors are not pricing in a deep CRE downturn. A fresh wave of write-offs could hit sentiment and compress the stock’s valuation multiple. In a rising loss cycle, confidence matters more than capital ratios. Until we see a reset in CRE values or more aggressive derisking from management, the stock remains vulnerable. The earnings outlook is soft. The balance sheet is exposed. This is a short or, at best, an underweight. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
9:23 AM · Oct 19, 2025
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moomoo
Wells Fargo Beat the S&P 500 Over 12 Months. What Its Chart Says
Wells Fargo NYSE:WFC will report earnings next week at a time when the banking giant's stock recently hit an all-time high and is beating the S&P 500 SP:SPX on a one-year and five-year basis, but trailing more recently. What does the stock's technical and fundamental analysis show? Let's check it out: Wells Fargo's Fundamental Analysis WFC will be among one of the first major companies to report Q3 earnings, unveiling results next Tuesday as several large banks head to the tape. A traditional money-center bank, Wells Fargo recently saw the Federal Reserve lift a punitive $1.95 trillion asset cap that the bank had faced since 2018 in response to a number of scandals at the firm. Problems dated back to 2016 and involved WFC setting up fake customer accounts, auto loans and mortgages, although all of that happened under previous management. Current President and CEO Charles Scharf spent years since taking the job in 2019 proving to the Fed that the bank had cleaned up its act. Now, having the ability to manage more assets could potentially mean increased potential for WFC, especially at a time when net interest margin is the name of the game in banking. For Q3, analysts expect Wells Fargo to post $1.53 in GAAP earnings per share on roughly $21.1 billion of revenue. That would represent a 7.7% gain on the $1.42 in GAAP EPS that the bank saw in the year-ago period, as well as about 3.7% growth from the $20.4 billion in revenues seen in the same period last year. That may not seem like a big y/y revenue gain, but it would reflect the most aggressive annual growth that Wells Fargo has seen for any quarter in two years. Meanwhile, 14 of the 20 sell-side analysts that I know of who track WFC have increased their earnings estimates since the quarter started. (Five have lowered their estimates, while one has made no changes.) Three analysts rated five stars out of a possible five by TipRanks -- Bank of America's Ebrahim Poonawala, Wolfe Research's Steven Chubak and UBS's Erika Najarian -- also reiterated their "Buy" or "Buy-Equivalent" ratings just this month. That said, Poonawala didn't set a price target, while Chubak and Najarian cut their WFC targets to $90 and $93, respectively. That's certainly a mixed bag of expectations from the analyst community. Wells Fargo's Technical Analysis How about the technicals? Well, here's WFC's chart going back some eight months and running through Monday afternoon: Readers will see that from February into early summer, Wells Fargo developed what's called an "inverse head-and-shoulders pattern" of bullish reversal, marked with a jagged black line at the chart's left. This pattern had a $77 pivot vs. the $79.73 that WFC closed at Wednesday. Wells Fargo then went right into what looks like a still incomplete "ascending-triangle" pattern of bullish trend continuance, marked with diagonal purple lines at the chart's right. This brought the pivot up to $85, and would presumably take analysts' price targets higher as well. That said, the stock is currently struggling with both its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a blue line) and with the ascending triangle's lower trendline. Whether Wells Fargo can hold those lines could have a lot to do with how professional managers treat that stock going forward. Meanwhile, take a look at the secondary indicators that I placed on the above chart. Wells Fargo's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) isn't overtly weak, but is running below what technical analysts would consider neutral. The stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indication (or "MACD," denoted by the black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is even shakier. The histogram of Wells Fargo's 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with blue bars) is below the zero bound, which is a short-term bearish technical signal. And while both the 12-day EMA (the black line) and 26-day EMA (the gold line) are above zero (a bullish technical sign), the 12-day line has crossed below the 26-day line. That's traditionally a bearish signal. An Options Option Options traders who think WFC will hold its 50-day SMA line and make a run at the pivot might employ a bull-call spread in scenario. This involves buying a call option and selling a second call option that has a higher strike price, hoping for a moderate rise in the stock. Here's an example: -- Buy one Oct. 17 $80 call for about $2.65. This will expire after Wells Fargo's Oct. 14 earnings release. -- Sell one October 17 $85 call for roughly $0.65. Net Debit: $2. This trade involves spending and risking $2 for the potential to make $3 (the difference between the two calls' strike prices minus the net debit.) Traders willing to potentially purchase the shares at a discount might also add the sale of a put to the above trade. Example: -- Sell one Oct. 17 put for about $0.55 at a $76 strike price (Wells Fargo's 200-day SMA). New Net Debit: $1.45. This combination offers as much as a 244% potential profit. However, the trader would risk potentially having to buy WFC at a $76.45 net basis. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle was long WFC at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. The Analyst Ratings feature comes from TipRanks, an independent third party. The accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed and should not be relied upon as a primary basis for any investment decision. The target prices are intended for informational purposes only, not recommendations, and are also not guarantees of future results. Options trading is risky and not appropriate for everyone. Read the Options Disclosure Document ( j.moomoo.com ) before trading. Options are complex and you may quickly lose the entire investment. Supporting docs for any claims will be furnished upon request. Options trading subject to eligibility requirements. Strategies available will depend on options level approved. Maximum potential loss and profit for options are calculated based on the single leg or an entire multi-leg trade remaining intact until expiration with no option contracts being exercised or assigned. These figures do not account for a portion of a multi-leg strategy being changed or removed or the trader assuming a short or long position in the underlying stock at or before expiration. Therefore, it is possible to lose more than the theoretical max loss of a strategy. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
3:58 PM · Oct 9, 2025
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MoneyGroupLLC
fibonacci6180
Wells Fargo Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 073025
Hit the 84.5/423.60% resistance level. Trading Idea Chart time frame:D A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress:E A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
2:20 AM · Jul 31, 2025
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