Wells Fargo NYSE:WFC rose more than 20% in the past three months and 32.7% in 2025, beating the S&P 500 SP:SPX in both time periods. What does its chart and fundamental analysis say as the bank prepares to release Q4 results?
Let's take a look:
Wells Fargo's Fundamental Analysis
Earnings season kicks off in earnest this week, with the largest U.S. banks reporting first -- including Wells Fargo on Wednesday before the bell.
Analyst expectations for the banks are coming in a bit hot this season. After all, demand for investment banking has been on the rise, trading has likely been strong (at least on the equity side) and analysts expect loan demand to be solid.
That said, the U.S. consumer has reportedly started to struggle, while credit quality will be an issue that analysts and investors will be watching.
The question is, will Wells Fargo keep up with the pack? Let's pop the hood and see what there is to see.
Analysts expect Wells Fargo to report $1.67 in Q4 GAAP earnings per share on roughly $21.7 billion of revenue.
That would represent 16.8% year-over-year gains from the $1.43 in GAAP EPS that the bank reported for the same period one year ago, while reflecting 6.4% growth from Q4 2024's $20.4 billion in revenue.
Very interestingly, that would also be WFC's fastest pace of annual revenue growth since Q3 2023.
In fact, 17 of the 19 sell-side analysts that I track that cover Wells Fargo have increased their earnings estimates since the quarter began, while only two have revised those numbers lower.
Wells Fargo's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at Wells Fargo's daily chart going back some 11 months and running through Friday afternoon (Jan. 9):
This chart reflects what's been a great run for Wells Fargo -- and for large U.S. banks more broadly over the same period.
However, it begs an important question: Is this stock (and those of other large American banks) now vulnerable?
True, readers will see that technically speaking, Wells Fargo has been trading by the book over the past nearly one year.
From last February into early June, the stock put in an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern of bullish reversal, as denoted by the green jagged lines at the chart's right. That pattern worked like a charm and WFC rose some 45% from its April low to its July high.
Then, Wells Fargo developed an ascending-triangle pattern of bullish continuance from early July into early October, marked with purple diagonal lines at the chart's center. That set-up also worked like a charm, with WFC tacking on another 3.1% from its July high to its October one.
But now comes the hard part.
As Wells Fargo has increased in price from late November to the present, it's appeared to have formed a rising-wedge pattern of bearish reversal. Marked with yellow diagonal lines at the chart's right, this pattern has an apparent downside pivot close to $94. (By way of reference, WFC closed Monday at $94.96.)
It's unclear whether the stock's downside pivot is the rising wedge's lower trendline or the stock's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line). In fact, the two are currently only about $1 apart.
That said, Wells Fargo could still find nearby support from professional money managers at either its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by the blue line) or its 200-day SMA (the red line).
Meanwhile, Wells Fargo's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is better than neutral and appears to be just fine.
However, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) isn't fine technically speaking.
For instance, the histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) has moved into negative territory. That's a short-term bearish signal.
In addition, the 12-day EMA (the black line) has crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). This is also a bearish signal, although it would be amplified if the two lines were both below zero, which they currently aren't.
An Options Option
Options traders who already hold WFC might be considering a so-called "bear-put spread" to provide some downside protection in this scenario.
This involves going long one put and short a second put with a lower strike price. Here's an example:
-- Long one WFC put that expires Jan. 16 (i.e., after earnings) and has a $94 strike price (the apparent pivot point above). This cost roughly $1.55 at recent prices.
-- Short one WFC Jan. 16 $89 put for about $0.50.
Net Debit: $1.05.
For the net cost of little more than $1, the trader has bought himself or herself the right to exit the stock should it fall below $94 after earnings and possibly re-enter at $89.
The worst-case scenario is loss of the $1.05 net debit, plus the possibility of ending up long Wells Fargo stock at a $90.05 net basis at a time when it's trading below $89. That's an out-and-back-in trade that captures almost $4 in capital.
And for a trader who doesn't currently own WFC shares, the best-case scenario with this trade is a $5 return on a $1.05 net debit, for a $3.95 profit.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in WFC at the time of writing this column.)
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