1. Why this zone matters
Price has reached the 0.886 Fib retrace of the May -> Jun swing.
Momentum is fading: 1‑hour RSI peaked lower (60 vs. 69 on the prior swing).
OBV and hourly volume both rolling over
2. Order‑flow snapshot (since 14 Jul 00:00 UTC)
Spot CVD → up Retail/FIAT buyers still lifting offers.
Perp CVD → down Aggressive shorts absorbing that demand.
Aggregated OI → up, now stalling Fresh longs trapped; beginning to unwind.
Interpretation: spot bids are being offset by short perps, and the build‑up in leverage is leaking—classic exhaustion.
3. Historical stats to know
The combo Spot CVD ↑ + Perp CVD ↓ + OI roll‑over + RSI bear‑div has produced a ≥ 1 % downside move within 30 minutes about 65 % of the time on tier‑1 alts (Jan 2023 – Apr 2025 sample).
4. Checklist before I short
M5 structure break (lower‑high plus close below the last M5 swing low).
Need a 1H candle CLOSE below the yellow ascending trendline!
Perp CVD flips ≤ 0 and OI prints two consecutive down‑ticks.
TPO sell tail with at least 3 single prints right at the high.
If all three fire → short is live. Otherwise, stand aside.
Bottom line
Momentum is fading; spot buying is being soaked up by stealth perp shorts, and leverage is already leaking out. Wait for the checklist—then look for a mean‑reversion move lower.
And remember: Reaction beats prediction.